基于奇异矢量目标观测的梅雨锋低涡观测系统模拟试验

卜敏1,董佩明2,蔡其发1,钟科1,周芦燕3

基于奇异矢量目标观测的梅雨锋低涡观测系统模拟试验

卜敏1,董佩明2,蔡其发1,钟科1,周芦燕3

北京2433信箱,北京 100081;2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 100029;3. 解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏南京,211101

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摘要: 就江淮梅雨锋低涡预报基于奇异矢量目标观测作了观测系统模拟试验，目的在于对基于奇异矢量目标观测实际实施作预先研究，寻找目标观测中所要遵循原则和实施细节，以及用奇异矢量确定目标观测区的恰当方法。经分析实际奇异矢量相关误差如何影响预报特征，得出在实施目标观测时应遵循的原则：只对奇异矢量相关误差进行订正，不对非奇异矢量相关误差订正；对奇异矢量强相关误差区域优先订正能更为高效率地改进预报；对整个垂直气柱进行订正，而不只对满足阈值区域进行订正；应优先采用效率较高的第一类斜压订正方案。文中两种方法确定的目标观测区与实际奇异矢量相关误差区域在位置、大小、形状上比较相似，两种方法的目标观测区误差影响预报方式与真实奇异矢量相关误差影响预报方式很相近。
- 目标观测 /
- 奇异矢量 /
- 观测系统模拟试验

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