Impact of the Upper-tropospheric Environmental Field on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hagupit (2020)
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摘要: 近海迅速增强(RI)是当前台风强度预报中的难点。为加深台风强度变化机理认识和提高台风强度预报水平,利用CMA最佳路径数据和ERA5大气再分析资料,分析了历史罕见的东海近海台风“黑格比”(2020)在RI阶段的高层环境场特征,着重探讨了高层环境场影响台风强度的可能过程。结果显示:(1)“黑格比”的RI过程中,南亚高压与热带对流层上部槽之间的强风速带增强了台风东南侧高空外流,中纬度高空槽增强了台风北侧高空外流。(2) 高层环境场与台风高空外流的相互作用有利于台风增强。一方面,有利的高空形势向台风中心传播涡动角动量通量辐合来增强台风高空外流,进而加强高空外流与上升运动形成的次级环流,促进台风中心气压降低和强度增强;另一方面,增强的台风高空外流限制了垂直风切变的发展,从而减弱环境场的通风效应,有助于台风加强。(3) 360 K等熵面上环境场高位涡向台风中心输送,同时平流层“高位涡库”向下打通,可以促进台风高层暖心形成,有利于台风加强。针对高层环境场的综合分析可以为台风强度预报提供一定的参考。Abstract: Rapid intensification (RI) remains a difficulty in typhoon intensity prediction currently. In order to enhance the understanding of the mechanism of typhoon intensity variation and improve the typhoon intensity prediction accuracy, the characteristics of the upper-tropospheric environmental field of typhoon Hagupit (2020) during the RI phase were analyzed using the CMA best track data and ERA5 reanalysis data, and the possible mechanisms of the upper-tropospheric environmental field affecting typhoon intensity were discussed. The results show that: (1) The upper-level weather systems affecting the intensity variation of Hagupit (2020) mainly include the South Asian High, the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough, and the mid-latitude trough. (2) The upper-tropospheric environmental field affects the typhoon intensity by the interaction with the upper-level outflow of the typhoon. On one hand, the favorable uppertropospheric circulation enhances the upper-level outflow by propagating the eddy flux convergence of relative angular momentum towards the typhoon center, thus promoting the secondary circulation formed by the outflow and ascending motion. On the other hand, the enhanced outflow serves to divert the environmental flow, thus reducing the vertical wind shear. Therefore, the ventilation effect weakens and the typhoon intensifies. (3) On the 360-K isentropic surface, the superposition of small-scale positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies on the typhoon circulation can enhance the typhoon intensity. At the same time, the "high-PV pool" in the stratosphere connects with the positive PV anomaly region in the middle troposphere, which can promote the formation of the upper-level warm core and intensify the typhoon. The comprehensive analysis of the upper-tropospheric environmental field can provide some reference for typhoon intensity prediction.
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