A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE BENEFIT ASSESSMENT OF TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST OF LANDFALL TROPICAL CYCLONES
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摘要: 近年来有关热带气旋(TC)灾情的评估指标和方法的研究取得明显进展，但较少涉及TC预报对减少灾害损失的贡献(即效益)分析。基于中央气象台的TC实时路径和强度预报，针对登陆中国大陆的TC，初步分析了TC的路径和强度预报误差与其造成的直接经济损失之间的可能关系，并在此基础上建立了包含TC路径和强度预报误差的TC直接经济损失的预估模型。TC登陆前后24 h的路径和强度预报误差与TC所致直接经济损失均呈正相关关系；对于单个登陆TC而言，若24 h TC路径预报误差每减小1 km可减少因灾直接经济损失约0.97亿元，若强度预报每减小1 m/s可减少因灾直接经济损失约3.8亿元(以2014年为基准年)。可见，提高TC路径和强度预报精度对于减灾的效益巨大，且当前尤以提高强度预报能力的效益为佳。Abstract: In recent years, the assessment of damage caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) has attracted wide attention, with progress obviously made in evaluation indexes and methods but less so in TCs forecast accuracy, which makes great contribution to the reduction of the damage of TCs. In this paper, we use the data of typhoon real-time prediction from China Meteorological Administration to study the relationship between track, intensity forecast errors and direct economic losses by TCs making landfall on the mainland of China, and establish a prediction model. The results are shown as follows: The relationship is positive between direct economic losses and track or intensity forecast errors of TCs 24 h before and after landfall. If the 24 h track forecast error reduces by 1km, there will be 97 million yuan worth of reduction of direct economic losses caused by TC damages for a single landfall TC. If the 24 h intensity forecast error reduces 1m/s, the reduction will be 380 million yuan (normalized by the year of 2014). It can be seen that there will be great benefits to improve the TC track and intensity forecast accuracy for reducing the TC damages. As to the economic benefits, it will be better, at present, to improve the intensity forecast accuracy than the track forecast of landfall TCs.
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Key words:
- tropical cyclone /
- track /
- intensity /
- forecast errors /
- benefit assessment
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