THE NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INTER-ANNUAL VARIATION OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA AND THE HIGH AND LOW LATITUDE CIRCULATION
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摘要: 利用区域气候模式RegCM4.4对我国南方夏季降水和大气环流进行30 a的数值模拟，通过与降水观测对比发现，模式能够较好模拟出我国东部地区夏季平均降水和年际变率的空间分布，模拟的南方地区(30 °N以南)年际变率略偏小。观测的我国南方夏季平均降水与模拟降水相关系数为0.51。观测和模拟结果均表明，典型涝年，中纬异常反气旋前方的东北风携带干冷空气，低纬异常反气旋后方的西南风携带暖湿空气，在我国南方汇合，导致南方降水异常增多，模式具有模拟我国夏季南方降水年际变化的能力。通过边界敏感性试验，去除高纬侧边界强迫的年际变化，我国东部降水偏多，南方夏季降水年际变化强度显著变弱；去除低纬度侧边界强迫的年际变化，模拟的我国南方降水偏少，长江及以北降水偏多，降水的空间分布形态发生明显的变化，而我国南方夏季降水年际变化强度基本不变。因此，中高纬环流强迫可较大程度影响我国南方降水年际变化的强度，低纬度环流强迫异常则会改变我国东部降水空间分布形态。Abstract: 30 years' numerical simulation of precipitation and associated circulation over Southern China in the summer is carried out by RegCM4.4. By comparison with the observed data of rainfall, it finds that this model could better simulate the spatial distribution of the average summer precipitation and the inter-annual variation in the eastern areas of China, and the inter-annual variation of the simulated precipitation in the southern areas is relatively low. The correlation coefficient between the observed average summer precipitation and the simulated precipitation over Southern China is 0.51. The result of the simulation and observation shows that in typical flood years the northeasterly ahead of the middle-latitude anomalous anticyclone joins the southwesterly behind the low-latitude anomalous anticyclone in Southern China, which results in heavy precititation, and this model has the ability to simulate the inter-annual variation of summer precipitation in Southern China. By the lateral boundary sensitivity experiments, the inter-annual variation intensity of summer precipitation in Southern China is weakened significantly but the spatial distribution of the precipitation in drought and flood years changes little by getting rid of the inter-annual variation of the lateral border forcing in high latitudes, while the inter-annual variation intensity of summer precipitation in Southern China is nearly invariable but the spatial distribution of the precipitation in drought and flood years changes significantly by removing the inter-annual variation of the lateral border forcing in low latitudes. The mid-high latitude lateral border forcing mainly influences the inter-annual variation intensity of summer precipitation in Southern China but changes little the inter-annual variation of the space distribution while the low latitude lateral border forcing does quite the opposite.
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表 1 控制试验南方夏季典型旱涝年份的选取
涝年 旱年 1989、1991、1993、1995、1997、2002、2010 1986、1990、2003、2004、2012、2013 
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