ISSN 1004-4965

CN 44-1326/P

用微信扫描二维码

分享至好友和朋友圈

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

ENSO与中国夏季降水的联系:冬季QBO的调制作用

刘楚薇 饶建 吴志文 胡家晖 马小涵 刘韵雯 王博

刘楚薇, 饶建, 吴志文, 胡家晖, 马小涵, 刘韵雯, 王博. ENSO与中国夏季降水的联系:冬季QBO的调制作用[J]. 热带气象学报, 2019, 35(2): 210-223. doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2019.019
引用本文: 刘楚薇, 饶建, 吴志文, 胡家晖, 马小涵, 刘韵雯, 王博. ENSO与中国夏季降水的联系:冬季QBO的调制作用[J]. 热带气象学报, 2019, 35(2): 210-223. doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2019.019
Chu-wei LIU, Jian RAO, Zhi-wen WU, Jia-hui HU, Xiao-han MA, Yun-wen LIU, Bo HUANG. LINKAGE BETWEEN ENSO AND CHINA SUMMER RAINFALL: MODULATION BY QBO[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2019, 35(2): 210-223. doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2019.019
Citation: Chu-wei LIU, Jian RAO, Zhi-wen WU, Jia-hui HU, Xiao-han MA, Yun-wen LIU, Bo HUANG. LINKAGE BETWEEN ENSO AND CHINA SUMMER RAINFALL: MODULATION BY QBO[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2019, 35(2): 210-223. doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2019.019

ENSO与中国夏季降水的联系:冬季QBO的调制作用

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2019.019
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2016YFA0602104

江苏省大学生创新创业训练计划 201710300062Y

国家自然科学基金 41705024

南京信息工程大学科研启动金 2016r060

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    饶建,男,江苏省人,讲师,主要从事平流层动力学和海气相互作用方向的研究工作。E-mail: raojian@nuist.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P434.4

LINKAGE BETWEEN ENSO AND CHINA SUMMER RAINFALL: MODULATION BY QBO

  • 摘要: 使用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、中国气象局台站降水资料和GPCC降水资料,系统研究了在冬季平流层准两年振荡(Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO)调制下,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)不同阶段与中国夏季降水的可能联系。根据两者的位相和强度,可将它们的配置分为QBO西风/El Niño、QBO西风/La Niña、QBO东风/El Niño、QBO东风/La Niña。研究结果表明,在年际时间尺度上,ENSO和QBO无显著相关关系。冬季QBO西风位相时,El Niño发展年夏季,我国整体偏旱,而华南偏涝;衰减年夏季,华南、华东北部偏旱,东北、长江流域偏涝。La Niña发展年夏季,我国东部降水异常呈负-正-负的三极分布;衰减年夏季,东南沿海偏涝。冬季QBO东风位相时,El Niño发展年夏季,长江以北偏旱;衰减年夏季,我国东部降水异常呈负-正-负的三极分布。La Niña发展年夏季,江淮和华南南部偏旱;衰减年夏季,我国东部沿海偏涝。ENSO是影响我国夏季降水异常的重要因子,而QBO的调制作用在ENSO衰减年夏季更为显著。相比冬季QBO东(西)风位相,QBO西(东)风位相时El Niño (La Niña)期间赤道西太平洋负(正)海温异常更强,衰减年夏季位于西太平洋的异常下沉(上升)运动和印度洋的异常上升(下沉)运动更强更深厚,西太平洋副热带高压范围更大(小),南亚高压更偏东(西)。

     

  • 图  1  冬季Niño3.4 (170~120 °W, 5 °S~5 °N)指数

    (a,单位: ℃; 参考线: 0和±0.5倍标准差)与冬季
    QBO指数(5 °S~5 °N, 50 hPa)时间序列
    (b,单位: m/s; 参考线: 0和±5)

    图  2  冬季平均的Niño3.4 (纵坐标,单位:℃)和冬季平均的QBO (横坐标,单位:m/s)指数散点图

    图  3  ENSO发展年夏季(a1~d1)与衰减年夏季(a2~d2)台站降水异常场(阴影,单位:mm /mon)以及850 hPa风场(矢量, 单位: m/s)

    a. WQBO-El; b. WQBO-La; c. EQBO-El; d. EQBO-La。黑线标出了降水异常通过0.10显著性检验。

    图  4  图 3,但降水数据源自全球降水气候中心月降水合成数据

    图  5  图 3,但为大气整层积分(1 000~300 hPa)的水汽通量散度异常(单位:mm/mon)

    灰色阴影为地形海拔高度超过1 500 m的区域。

    图  6  赤道(5 °S~5 °N) SST (阴影,单位:℃)与850 hPa风场(矢量,单位:m/s)异常的经度-时间演变

    a. WQBO-El; b. WQBO-La; c. EQBO-El; d. EQBO-La。纵坐标的0和1分别代表ENSO发展年和衰减年。黑线标出了SST异常通过0.10显著性检验的区域。

    图  7  ENSO发展年夏季(a1~d1)、成熟位相冬季(a2~d2)及衰减年夏季(a3~d3)赤道(5 °S~5 °N)垂直速度(ω)异常高度-经度分布

    a. WQBO-El; b. WQBO-La; c. EQBO-El; d. EQBO-La。阴影区标出了异常通过0.10显著性检验的区域。

    图  8  ENSO发展年夏季(a1~d1)与ENSO衰减年夏季(a2~d2) 850 hPa高度异常

    等值线单位:gpm。a. WQBO-El; b. WQBO-La; c. EQBO-El; d. EQBO-La。灰色阴影为地形海拔高度超过1 500 m的区域,打点区的高度异常超过0.10的显著性检验。

    图  9  ENSO发展年(a)与衰减年(b)夏季850 hPa太平洋副热带高压(1 520 gpm)的范围与位置

    图  10  ENSO发展年(a)与衰减年(b)夏季100 hPa南亚高压(16 800 gpm)的范围与位置

    表  1  冬季QBO和ENSO不同极端位相的配置统计表

    配置类型 年份
    WQBO-El 1968/1969, 1972/1973, 1982/1983, 1987/1988, 1992/1993, 1994/1995
    WQBO-La 1970/1971, 1974/1975, 1975/1976, 1984/1985, 1989/1990, 1998/1999, 2005/2006, 2007/2008
    EQBO-El 1969/1970, 1976/1977, 1983/1984, 1986/1987, 1991/1992, 1997/1998, 2002/2003, 2004/2005, 2006/2007, 2009/2010, 2015/2016
    EQBO-La 1964/1965, 1973/1974, 1985/1986, 1988/1989, 1995/1996, 1999/2000, 2000/2001, 2011/2012
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] ZHAI P M, YU R, GUO Y J, et al. The Strong El Niño of 2015/16 and its dominant impacts on global and China's Climate[J]. J Meteor Res, 2016, 30(3):283-297. doi: 10.1007/s13351-016-6101-3
    [2] RAO J, REN R C. Parallel comparison of the 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 super El Niños and their effects on the extratropical stratosphere[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2017, 34(9): 1 121-1 133. doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6260-x
    [3] HUANG R H, WU Y F. The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 1989, 6 (1): 21-32. doi: 10.1007-BF02656915/
    [4] 金祖辉, 陶诗言. ENSO循环与中国东部地区夏季和冬季降水关系的研究[J].大气科学, 1999, 23(6): 663-672. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1999.06.03
    [5] 黄荣辉, 陈文.关于亚洲季风与ENSO循环相互作用研究最近的进展[J].气候与环境研究, 2002, 7(2): 146-159. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qhyhjyj200202003
    [6] WANG B, WU R G, FU X H. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?[J]. J Clim, 2000, 13 (9): 1 517-1 536. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2
    [7] WANG B, WU R G, LI T. Atmosphere-warm ocean interaction and its impact on Asian-Australian monsoon variation[J]. J Clim, 2003, 16 (8): 1 195-1 211. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<1195:AOIAII>2.0.CO;2
    [8] ANNAMALAI H, LIU P, XIE S P. Southwest Indian Ocean SST variability: Its local effect and remote influence on Asian monsoon[J]. J Clim, 2005, 18 (20): 4 150-4 167. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3533.1
    [9] 黄刚, 胡开明.夏季北印度洋海温异常对西北太平洋低层反气旋异常的影响[J].南京气象学院学报, 2008, 31(6): 749-757. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2008.06.001
    [10] YANG J L, LIU Q Y, XIE S P, et al. Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian Summer monsoon[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2007, 34: L02708. doi: 10.1029-2006GL028571/
    [11] LI S, LU J, HUANG G. Tropical Indian Ocean basin warming and East Asian summer monsoon: A multiple GCM study[J]. J Clim, 2008, 21 (22): 6 080-6 088. doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2433.1
    [12] HUANG G, QU X, HU K M. The Impact of the tropical Indian Ocean on South Asian high in boreal summer[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2011, 28(2): 421-432. doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9224-y
    [13] RAO J, REN R C. Asymmetry and nonlinearity of the influence of ENSO on the northern winter stratosphere:1. Observations[J]. J Geophys Res, 2016, 121 (15): 9 000-9 016. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=f87fd0760668b3d6a8c80cfb54785995&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
    [14] RAO J, REN R C. Asymmetry and nonlinearity of the influence of ENSO on the northern winter stratosphere: 2. Model study with WACCM[J]. J Geophys Res, 2016, 121 (15): 9 017-9 032. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=170dceb5495a39c55711173b30f52936&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
    [15] WANG H J. The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relations[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2002, 19(1): 1-11. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=fa9443fee90900cfdd8b3e9dc55ea21a&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
    [16] JIANG D B, WANG H J, HELGE D, et al. Instability of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship in a coupled global atmosphere ocean GCM[J]. Chinese J Geophy, 2004, 47(6):1 098-1 103. doi: 10.1002/cjg2.v47.6
    [17] 宗海锋, 陈烈庭, 张庆云. ENSO与中国夏季降水年际变化关系的不稳定性特征[J].大气科学, 2010, 34(1): 184-192. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.01.17
    [18] KARORI M A, LI J P, JIN F F. The asymmetric influence of the two types of El Niño and La Niña on summer rainfall over southeast China[J]. J Clim, 2013, 26(13): 4 567-4 582. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00324.1
    [19] 朱益民, 杨修群.太平洋年代际振荡与中国气候变率的联系[J].气象学报, 2003, 61(6): 641-654. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxxb200306001
    [20] 朱益民, 杨修群, 陈晓颖, 等. ENSO与中国夏季年际气候异常关系的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报, 2007, 23(2): 105-116. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2007.02.001
    [21] 吕俊梅, 祝从文, 琚建华, 等.近百年中国东部夏季降水年代际变化特征及其原因[J].大气科学, 2014, 38(4): 782-794, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895. 1401.13227.
    [22] XIAO M, ZHANG Q, SINGH V P. Influences of ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO on seasonal precipitation regimes in the Yangtze River basin, China[J]. Int J Climatol, 2014, 35(12): 3 556-3 567. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=be70af6500407c32df709d78b0bb91b6
    [23] 程乘, 朱益民, 丁黄兴, 等.中国东部地区夏季降水和环流的年代际转型及其与PDO的联系[J].气象科学, 2017, 37(4): 450-457. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxkx201704003
    [24] 王黎娟, 陈爽, 张海燕.南印度洋偶极子的变化特征及其与ENSO事件的联系[J].大气科学学报, 2018, 41(3):344-354. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/njqxxyxb201803006
    [25] 严欣, 琚建华, 甘薇薇. MJO持续异常对ENSO的影响[J].热带气象学报, 2016, 32(5): 634-644. http://www.itmm.org.cn/rdqxxb/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20160506&flag=1
    [26] BALDWIN M P, DUNKERTON T J. Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere[J]. J Geophys Res, 1999, 104(D24): 30 937-30 946. doi: 10.1029/1999JD900445
    [27] RAO J, REN R C. Varying stratospheric responses to tropical Atlantic SST forcing from early to late winter[J]. Climate Dyn, 2018, 51(5-6): 2 079-2 096, doi: 478 10.1007/s00382-017-3998-x.
    [28] 田文寿, 田红瑛, 商林, 等.热带平流层与对流层之间相互作用的研究进展[J].热带气象学报, 2011, 27(5): 765-774.. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2011.05.00
    [29] DING Q H, WANG B. Intraseasonal teleconnection between the summer Eurasian wave train and the Indian monsoon[J]. J Clim, 2007, 20(15): 3 751-3 767. doi: 10.1175/JCLI4221.1
    [30] 贾建颖, 孙照渤, 刘向文, 等.中国东部夏季降水准两年周期振荡的长期演变[J].大气科学, 2009, 33(2): 397-407. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.02.17
    [31] 黄荣辉, 陈际龙, 刘永, 等.我国东部夏季降水异常主模态的年代际变化及其与东亚水汽输送的关系[J].大气科学, 2011, 35(4): 589-606. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.04.01
    [32] 李崇银, 龙振夏.准两年振荡及其对东亚大气环流和气候的影响[J].大气科学, 1992, 16(2): 167-176. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1992.02.05
    [33] 李崇银, 龙振夏.西太平洋副高活动与平流层QBO关系的研究[J].大气科学, 1997, 21(6): 670-678. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1997.06.04
    [34] 廖荃荪, 王永光.赤道平流层QBO与我国7月雨型的关联[J].应用气象学报, 1998, 9(1): 104-108. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=QK199800699452
    [35] ZHENG B, GU D J, LIN A L, et al. Dynamical mechanism of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation impact on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon[J]. Sci China Ser D, 2007(09): 1 424-1 432. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=b41dcbd39b49447f1bdb7a063cabf813&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
    [36] RICHTER J H, MATTHES K, CALVO N, et al. Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings[J]. J Geophys Res, 2011, 116: D20111, doi: 10.1029/2011JD015757.
    [37] XUE X, CHEN W, CHEN S F, et al. Modulation of the connection between boreal winter ENSO and the South Asian High in the following summer by the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation[J]. J Geophys Res, 2015, 120(15): 7 393-7 411. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=8bb17d42bfb57d795fce11ff9fd798b2
    [38] WEI K, CHEN W, HUANG R C. Association of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures with the stratospheric Holton-Tan Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere winter[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2007, 34(16): 130-144. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=0e9982fec1f202f341931eaf0b438ba1
    [39] RAYNER N A, BROHAN P, PARKER D E, et al. Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset[J]. J Clim, 2006, 19(19): 446-469. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=c770451f464c8a885385f88cd5a7545c&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
    [40] KALNAY E, KANAMITSU M, KISTLER R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Am Meteor Soc, 1996, 77(3): 437- 472. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
    [41] SCHNEIDER U, BECKER A, FINGER P, et al. GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle[J]. Theor Appl Climatol, 2014, 115(1-2):15-40. doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x
    [42] 王博, 饶建, 王华曌, 等.北半球冬季不同PNA和NAO配置与中国降水的联系[J].高原气象, 2018, 37(5): 1264-1276. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/gyqx201805011
    [43] QUE Z P, WU F, BI C, et al. Impacts of monthly anomalies of intraseasonal oscillation over South China Sea and South Asia on the activity of summer monsoon and rainfall in eastern China[J]. J Trop Meteorol, 2016, 22(2): 145-158. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=650ec9d6da28f087cf6c7be8b1c285e5&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
    [44] 李秀珍, 梁卫, 温之平.华南秋、冬、春季水汽输送特征及其与降水异常的联系[J].热带气象学报, 2010, 26(5): 626-632. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2010.05.016
    [45] 吴国雄, 孟文.赤道印度洋-太平洋地区海气系统的齿轮式耦合和ENSO事件Ⅰ:资料分析[J].大气科学, 1998, 22(4): 470-480. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1998.04.09
    [46] COLLIMORE C C, MARTIN DW, HITCHMAN H M, et al. On the relationship between the QBO and tropical deep convection[J]. J Clim, 2003, 16(15): 2 552-2 568. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2552:OTRBTQ>2.0.CO;2
    [47] HUANG B, HU Z Z, KINTER III J L K, et al. Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part Ⅰ: Methodology and composite life cycle[J]. Climate Dyn, 2012, 38(1): 1-23. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=7880931f87a5256a224c3a932312fcbf&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
    [48] SEO J, CHOI W, YOUN D, et al. Relationship between the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the spring rainfall in the western North Pacific[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2013, 40(22): 5 949-5 953, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058266.
  • 加载中
图(10) / 表(1)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  380
  • HTML全文浏览量:  6
  • PDF下载量:  186
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2018-03-08
  • 修回日期:  2018-10-28
  • 刊出日期:  2019-04-01

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回