ENSO与中国夏季降水的联系：冬季QBO的调制作用

刘楚薇; 饶建; 吴志文; 胡家晖; 马小涵; 刘韵雯; 王博

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2019.019

ENSO与中国夏季降水的联系：冬季QBO的调制作用

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2019.019

刘楚薇¹,
饶建^{1, 2, ,},
吴志文¹,
胡家晖¹,
马小涵¹,
刘韵雯¹,
王博³

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，江苏南京 210044
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室，北京 100029
3.
古浪县气象局，甘肃武威 733100

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划 2016YFA0602104

江苏省大学生创新创业训练计划 201710300062Y

国家自然科学基金 41705024

南京信息工程大学科研启动金 2016r060

详细信息

通讯作者:
饶建，男，江苏省人，讲师，主要从事平流层动力学和海气相互作用方向的研究工作。E-mail: raojian@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P434.4
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-03-08
- 修回日期: 2018-10-28
- 刊出日期: 2019-04-01

LINKAGE BETWEEN ENSO AND CHINA SUMMER RAINFALL: MODULATION BY QBO

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME) / Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC) / Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
3.
Gulang Meteorological Bureau, Wuwei 733100, China

摘要

摘要: 使用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、中国气象局台站降水资料和GPCC降水资料，系统研究了在冬季平流层准两年振荡(Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO)调制下，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)不同阶段与中国夏季降水的可能联系。根据两者的位相和强度，可将它们的配置分为QBO西风/El Niño、QBO西风/La Niña、QBO东风/El Niño、QBO东风/La Niña。研究结果表明，在年际时间尺度上，ENSO和QBO无显著相关关系。冬季QBO西风位相时，El Niño发展年夏季，我国整体偏旱，而华南偏涝；衰减年夏季，华南、华东北部偏旱，东北、长江流域偏涝。La Niña发展年夏季，我国东部降水异常呈负-正-负的三极分布；衰减年夏季，东南沿海偏涝。冬季QBO东风位相时，El Niño发展年夏季，长江以北偏旱；衰减年夏季，我国东部降水异常呈负-正-负的三极分布。La Niña发展年夏季，江淮和华南南部偏旱；衰减年夏季，我国东部沿海偏涝。ENSO是影响我国夏季降水异常的重要因子，而QBO的调制作用在ENSO衰减年夏季更为显著。相比冬季QBO东(西)风位相，QBO西(东)风位相时El Niño (La Niña)期间赤道西太平洋负(正)海温异常更强，衰减年夏季位于西太平洋的异常下沉(上升)运动和印度洋的异常上升(下沉)运动更强更深厚，西太平洋副热带高压范围更大(小)，南亚高压更偏东(西)。
- 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO) /
- 平流层准两年振荡(QBO) /
- 夏季降水异常 /
- 海温
Abstract: By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the China Meteorological Administration station precipitation data and Global Precipitation Climate Centre rainfall data, this work systematically studied a possible linkage between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in different periods and the summer precipitation in China as well as its modulation by the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). According to the phase and intensity of the ENSO and QBO, four configurations are investigated, including QBO westerly phase and El Niño, QBO westerly phase and La Niña, QBO easterly phase and El Niño, and QBO easterly phase and La Niña. The result shows that there is no significant correlation between ENSO and QBO on the interannual time scale. In the case of QBO westerly phase in winter, China is generally dry except that the south of China is anomalously wet during an El Niño developing summer; the south and the east of China are anomalously dry and more rainfall appears in the northeast of China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during an El Niño decaying summer. In contrast, the precipitation anomalies in eastern China show a tripole pattern, i.e., a dry southern China, wet eastern and central China, and dry northern China during a La Niña developing summer accompanied by QBO westerly phase, while the coastal southeast China is anomalously wet during a La Niña decaying summer. In the case of QBO easterly phase in winter, north Yangtze River Valley is dry during an El Niño developing summer, but an anomalous tripole precipitation pattern forms during an El Niño decaying summer. The Yangtze-Huaihe valley region and coastal southern China are dry during a La Niña developing summer and QBO easterly phase. However, coastal eastern China is anomalously wet during a La Niña decaying summer and QBO easterly phase. ENSO is the major factor affecting China summer rainfall, but its effect is modulated by QBO, especially during an ENSO decaying summer. The positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are larger during El Niño (La Niña), and the anomalous sink (rise) branch is also deeper during an El Niño (La Niña) decaying summer when QBO is in its westerly (easterly) phase than in its easterly (westerly) phase. In addition, the 850 hPa anomalous high (low) in the northwestern Pacific is also stronger during an El Niño (La Niña) decaying summer when QBO is in its westerly (easterly) phase than in its easterly (westerly) phase. The Pacific subtropical high at 850hPa largely extends (shrinks) and South Asian High is located further eastward (westward) during an El Niño (La Niña) decaying summer when QBO is in its westerly (easterly) phase than in its easterly (westerly) phase.
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) /
- stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) /
- summer precipitation /
- sea surface temperature (SST)

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图 1 冬季Niño3.4 (170~120 °W, 5 °S~5 °N)指数

(a，单位: ℃; 参考线: 0和±0.5倍标准差)与冬季
QBO指数(5 °S~5 °N, 50 hPa)时间序列
(b，单位: m/s; 参考线: 0和±5)

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图 2 冬季平均的Niño3.4 (纵坐标，单位：℃)和冬季平均的QBO (横坐标，单位：m/s)指数散点图

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图 3 ENSO发展年夏季(a1~d1)与衰减年夏季(a2~d2)台站降水异常场(阴影，单位：mm /mon)以及850 hPa风场(矢量, 单位: m/s)

a. WQBO-El; b. WQBO-La; c. EQBO-El; d. EQBO-La。黑线标出了降水异常通过0.10显著性检验。

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图 4 同图 3，但降水数据源自全球降水气候中心月降水合成数据

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图 5 同图 3，但为大气整层积分(1 000~300 hPa)的水汽通量散度异常(单位：mm/mon)

灰色阴影为地形海拔高度超过1 500 m的区域。

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图 6 赤道(5 °S~5 °N) SST (阴影，单位：℃)与850 hPa风场(矢量，单位：m/s)异常的经度-时间演变

a. WQBO-El; b. WQBO-La; c. EQBO-El; d. EQBO-La。纵坐标的0和1分别代表ENSO发展年和衰减年。黑线标出了SST异常通过0.10显著性检验的区域。

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 ENSO发展年夏季(a1~d1)、成熟位相冬季(a2~d2)及衰减年夏季(a3~d3)赤道(5 °S~5 °N)垂直速度(ω)异常高度-经度分布

a. WQBO-El; b. WQBO-La; c. EQBO-El; d. EQBO-La。阴影区标出了异常通过0.10显著性检验的区域。

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图 8 ENSO发展年夏季(a1~d1)与ENSO衰减年夏季(a2~d2) 850 hPa高度异常

等值线单位：gpm。a. WQBO-El; b. WQBO-La; c. EQBO-El; d. EQBO-La。灰色阴影为地形海拔高度超过1 500 m的区域，打点区的高度异常超过0.10的显著性检验。

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图 9 ENSO发展年(a)与衰减年(b)夏季850 hPa太平洋副热带高压(1 520 gpm)的范围与位置

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图 10 ENSO发展年(a)与衰减年(b)夏季100 hPa南亚高压(16 800 gpm)的范围与位置

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表 1 冬季QBO和ENSO不同极端位相的配置统计表

配置类型	年份
WQBO-El	1968/1969, 1972/1973, 1982/1983, 1987/1988, 1992/1993, 1994/1995
WQBO-La	1970/1971, 1974/1975, 1975/1976, 1984/1985, 1989/1990, 1998/1999, 2005/2006, 2007/2008
EQBO-El	1969/1970, 1976/1977, 1983/1984, 1986/1987, 1991/1992, 1997/1998, 2002/2003, 2004/2005, 2006/2007, 2009/2010, 2015/2016
EQBO-La	1964/1965, 1973/1974, 1985/1986, 1988/1989, 1995/1996, 1999/2000, 2000/2001, 2011/2012

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