THE THERMAL EFFECT OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU ON THE SUMMER CLIMATE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SURROUNDING AREAS
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摘要: 针对青藏高原热力强迫作用对东亚夏季风强度、南海夏季风爆发早晚、南海周边区域旱涝的影响，以及在全球变暖背景下其对降水格局的影响等科学研究进行了总结回顾，并就青藏高原热力作用对南海周边区域夏季气候的影响科学问题进行了探讨。研究表明，高原冬春积雪异常通过影响雪盖反照率、改变辐射平衡和通过积雪-水文效应改变土壤湿度两个途径来影响东亚夏季风；通过改变大陆-海洋经向热力对比影响南海季风爆发早晚；通过改变西太平洋副高位置和季风环流变化来影响华南和长江流域夏季降水的分布。在全球变暖背景下，青藏高原感热加热的减弱可能对降水年代际“南涝北旱”格局的形成具有重要贡献。随着全球变暖减缓，青藏高原中部和东部的感热呈现出复苏态势，“南涝北旱”的降水格局分布在将来有可能被打破。Abstract: Advances in the research of the thermal effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian summer monsoon intensity, the South China Sea summer monsoon onset, the surrounding area of the South China Sea flood and drought, and its impact on the precipitation patterns under the background of global warming are introduced. Some scientific questions for further study about the thermal effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the South China Sea surrounding areas summer climate are discussed. It is showed that snow cover abnormalities in winter and spring affects the East Asian summer monsoon by affecting the snow albedo-temperature feedback, changing the radiation balance and altering the soil moisture through the snow-hydrological effect. It can lead to the onset time abnormal of the South China Sea monsoon by changing the continental-ocean meridional thermal contrast. It can modulate the distribution of summer precipitation in the South China and Yangtze River basins by changing the western Pacific subtropical high and monsoon circulation. Under the background of global warming, the weakening of sensible heat in the Tibetan Plateau may contribute to the formation of precipitation of the interdecadal "Southern and Northern Drought" pattern. As global warming slows, the sensible heat in the central and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau shows a recovery trend, and the precipitation pattern of the "Southern and Northern Sichuan" may be broken in the future.
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图 4 1957—2006年中国海拔高度大于1 000 m站点平均地气温差（3—6月）与东部平均降水（4—7月）的滞后相关（两者相关的3个层次用不同3个红色椭圆分别表示，两个蓝色箭头分别为这3个相关的层次之间两次月际跳跃
此图引自Xu et al, 2008[94]。
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