COMPARISON OF BIAS CORRECTION TECHNIQUES BASED ON CWRF MODEL FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION IN SUMMER
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摘要: 误差订正是提高模式模拟和预报性能的有效方法。基于CWRF(regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model)25套不同物理参数化方案的日降水量模拟资料, 对比仅进行降水日数订正(OCD)、仅进行降水量订正(OCM)和先订正降水日数再订正降水量(COR)三种订正方法, 先订正再等权重集成和先等权重集成再订正两种订正思路, 重点对1997—2015年华中和华南地区夏季日降水进行订正效果的对比。结果表明:(1)降水日的订正是必要的, 综合而言COR方法对CWRF模式日降水的订正效果更佳, 尤其是小量级降水, 但降水强度的表现不如OCM; (2)先集成后订正的效果更好; (3) CWRF模式不同参数化方案对日降水的模拟能力有显著差别, 经过订正后模拟能力均有所提升, 但对于不同的模拟方案, 其订正效果也不同。表明, 误差订正确实能有效提高模式模拟及预报性能, 但其效果存在不确定性。提高模式的预报性能, 关键还是提高模式对真实大气动力学的表述能力。Abstract: Error correction is an effective method to improve the performance of simulation and prediction in a model. Based on summer daily precipitation simulated by CWRF (regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model), focusing on central and southern China, the effectiveness of three correction methods including only corrected precipitation day (OCD), only corrected magnitude of precipitation (OCM) and corrected both (COR) as well as two schemes that correction before or after equal-weighted integration were compared in the paper. The result are as follows. (1) The correction of precipitation day is necessary. Compared with OCM, COR was better on the effect of CWRF daily precipitation correction, especially of smaller magnitude. (2) Equal-weighted integration before correction performed better. (3) Different parametric schemes of CWRF model have significant differences in the simulation ability of daily precipitation, and the simulation ability has been improved after the revision. The revision effect is different for different simulated schemes. The key to improve the prediction performance of CWRF is to improve the ability of the model to express real atmospheric dynamics.
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Key words:
- CWRF /
- bias correction /
- quantile mapping
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图 1 建模时期(1980—1996年, 黑线)和订正时期(1997—2015年, 灰线)观测(实线)和模拟(虚线)的降水量经验概率分布图
小图为大图纵坐标较小部分的放大。
图 2 1997—2015年夏季(6—8月)华中华南地区CWRF模式25个方案订正前(a)、先订正降水日数后订正降水量(b)、只进行降水日数订正(c)、只进行降水量订正(d)后等权重集合结果降水大于等于0.1 mm的天数与观测之差的空间分布(单位:天)
图的左(右)上角数值为与观测的空间相关系(均方根误差)。实(虚)线表示正(负)值, 灰色实线为区域分界线, 阴影表示通过0.01显著性检验。
图 3 华中(a)和华南(b)四种情况下25个方案(圆点)及其等权重集成(五角星)的降水日数泰勒图(单位:天)
落在极坐标系外的点以文字的形式绘制在泰勒图下方, 彩色数字表示不同情况下的方案号, 横线上下的数字分别表示该情况下与观测的均方根误差和相关系数。
图 8 订正前(INI)、等权重集成后订正(EI_COR)、先订正再等权重集成(COR_EI)、经COR_EI再进行频率匹配平均(COR_EI_ref)百分位Q-Q图
折线斜率为1, 右下角和左上角的Q-Q图分别表示小雨和中雨情况。
表 1 本文选择的25套CWRF模式方案的名称及其物理过程的组合[26]
方案名称
CASE_NAME积云方案
CU微物理方案
MP辐射方案
RA边界层方案
BL下垫面方案
SF云量方案
CLControl ECP+ KFeta KFeta BMJ BMJ Grell Grell Tiedtke Tiedtke GSFC+ NSAS NSAS Donner Donner Emanuel Emanuel GSFCLXZ+ Lin Lin WSM6 WSM6 CAM3+ Etamp Etamp Thompson Thompson Thompson-aero Thompson-aero CSSP+ Morrison Morrison XRL Morrison/aerosol Morrison/aerosol CCCMA CCCMA CAWCR CAWCR CAM ECP+ CAM FuLiou FuLiou RRTMG RRTMG YSU GSFC+ YSU MYNN MYNN Boulac Boulac ACM GSFCLXZ+ ACM UW UW NOAH CAM3+ NOAH Prognostic CC CSSP+ Prognostic CC 
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