RESPONSE OF GUANGXI LARGE-SCALE RAINSTORM ANOMALY TO PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
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摘要: 使用1961—2016年广西79个地面气象观测站逐日降水资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA) 逐月太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、国家气候中心西太平洋副热带高压指数资料, 利用相关和合成分析等方法研究广西大范围暴雨气候异常对PDO的响应。结果表明：广西大范围暴雨日数存在显著增多的突变新特征，对PDO有反位相变化的响应。当PDO处于冷位相时，对应着5—8月贝加尔湖阻塞高压和澳大利亚高压显著性偏强；索马里越赤道气流明显增强，与西太平洋副热带高压西侧边沿的东南风容易形成季风槽；形成从新几内亚岛东北部沿海到华南地区的低空风场为“反气旋-气旋-反气旋-气旋”波列传播，使广西大范围暴雨日数偏多。当PDO处于暖位相时，大气环流异常特征相反，广西大范围暴雨日数偏少。Abstract: Using daily precipitation data from 79 surface meteorological stations in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, NOAA Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and NCC western Pacific subtropical high index data from 1961 to 2016, the present study adopts correlation and composite methods to investigate the response of the large-scale rainstorm anomaly in Guangxi to the PDO. The results show that the number of large-scale rainstorm days in Guangxi has significantly increased and its response to the PDO is reverse-phase change. When the PDO is in the cold phase, the Baikal obstruction high and the Australian high increase significantly from May to August; the cross-equatorial airflow in Somalia is significantly enhanced, and the southeast wind on the western edge of the western Pacific subtropical high is likely to form a monsoon trough. There is a wave train of "anticyclone-cyclone-anticyclone-cyclone"propagation in the low-altitude wind field from the northeastern coast of New Guinea to southern China, leading to the increase of large-scale rainstorm days in Guangxi. When the PDO is in the warm phase, the abnormal characteristics of atmospheric circulation are opposite, and there are fewer days of large-scale rainstorms in Guangxi.
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图 1 1961—2016年广西大范围暴雨日数历年变化(a，黑实线为大范围暴雨日数，虚线为11 a滑动平均，红线为一元回归线，单位：d)和M-K检验(b)、PDO指数历年变化(c，黑实线为PDO指数，虚线为11 a滑动平均，红线为一元回归线)、大范围暴雨日数和PDO指数11 a滑动平均(d，实线为大范围暴雨日数，单位：d，直方图为PDO指数)
图 2 1961—2016年广西大范围暴雨日数与5—8月500 hPa高度场的相关系数分布(a，阴影为通过0.05的显著性水平检验区域)，PDO暖位相和冷位相500 hPa高度差值场(b，阴影为高度差绝对值≥1 dagpm，实线、虚线分别为暖位相、冷位相5—8月587线，点线为通过0.1的显著性水平检验区域)、暖位相(c)和冷位相(d)5—8月500 hPa高度场及距平值(实线为PDO冷暖位相期间平均高度场，点线为通过0.1的显著性水平检验区域，阴影为高度距平绝对值≥0.4 dagpm，单位：dagpm)
图 5 1961—2016年广西大范围暴雨日数与5—8月500 hPa(a)、200 hPa(b)风场的相关系数分布(阴影为与V风的相关通过水平为0.05的显著性检验区域；曲线为与U风的相关通过水平为0.05的显著性检验区域；矢量风为平均风场)，PDO暖位相(c、e)和冷位相(d、f)5—8月500 hPa、200 hPa风速距平场
c、d为500 hPa；e、f为200 hPa；阴影为风速距平绝对值≥0.5 m/s的区域；单位：m/s；红色风速矢量图为通过水平为0.1的显著性检验。
图 6 1961—2016年广西大范围暴雨日数与5—8月850 hPa风场的相关系数分布(a，阴影为大范围暴雨日数与V风的相关通过水平为0.05的显著性检验区域，曲线为与U风的相关通过水平为0.05的显著性检验区域，风场为平均风场)、暖位相和冷位相5—8月850 hPa风场差值(b，阴影为PDO指数与风场相关通过水平为0.1的显著性检验区域)、暖位相(c)和和冷位相(d)5—8月850 hPa风场距平(单位：m/s，阴影为风速距平绝对值≥0.5 m/s区域，红色风矢量图为通过水平为0.1的显著性检验)
图 7 PDO暖位相(a)和冷位相(b)5—8月OLR距平值(单位：W/m2，点线为冷暖位相OLR差值通过0.05的显著性水平检验区域，阴影为OLR距平绝对值≥1 W/m2区域)、PDO暖位相(c)和冷位相(d)5—8月沿23.5 °N经度-高度流场垂直剖面(阴影为垂直速度距平绝对值≥0.2 hPa/h)
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