APPLICABILITY ANALYSIS OF ERA5 REANALYSIS SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE DATA IN CHINA
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摘要: 再分析资料被广泛用于气候科学及相关研究，但同一再分析数据产品在全球不同区域的适用性存在差别，应用前需要进行评价。欧洲中期天气预报中心推出的第五代再分析产品ERA5，自发布起就受到了广泛的关注，但其在我国的评估都集中在局部区域，且没有关注到对极端气候的模拟能力。以全国728个气象站点温度数据为参考，使用平均绝对误差、均方根误差和Pearson相关系数对比分析了ERA5再分析温度数据在不同时间尺度（月、季）、不同气候区、不同海拔梯度上的精度以及对极端温度事件（包括热浪和寒潮）的刻画能力。结果显示：ERA5数据的日均温的精度最高，日最低温精度最差；ERA5数据春秋两季较冬夏两季的精度高，低海拔区域较高海拔区域精度高, 在高原气候区精度最低，在北亚热带精度最高；ERA5对于极端温度事件的刻画能力不足，在进行极端气候的相关研究时需要谨慎使用。Abstract: Reanalysis data is widely used in climate science and related research. However, for a given reanalysis data product, its suitability differs in different regions of the world and needs to be evaluated before application. ERA5, the fifth-generation reanalysis product launched by the European Center for medium-range weather forecasts, has been widely concerned since its release. So far, its assessment in China is focused on local areas, and research does not pay attention to the ability of extreme climate simulation. Therefore, based on the temperature data of 728 meteorological stations in China, using three evaluation indexes (mean absolute error, root mean square error and Pearson correlation coefficient), the accuracy of ERA5 reanalysis temperature data was compared in different time scales (month and season), different climatic regions, and different altitudinal gradients. Moreover, the ability of ERA5 to depict extreme temperature events (including heat waves and cold waves) was analyzed. The results show that the accuracy of daily mean temperature of ERA5 data is the highest, while the accuracy of the daily minimum temperature of ERA5 data is the lowest. The accuracy of ERA5 data in spring and autumn is higher than that in winter and summer, and that in low altitude areas is higher than that in high altitude areas. The accuracy of ERA5 data is the lowest in the plateau climate region, and the highest in the northern subtropical region. ERA5 is insufficient to portray extreme temperature events, and it should be used with caution.
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Key words:
- ERA5 data /
- Temperature /
- Heat waves /
- Cold front
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图 1 逐站点ERA5日均温（a、d、g）、日最高温（b、e、h）和日最低温(c、f、i)的验证结果
第一行为平均绝对误差（MAE）分布情况，第二行为平均相对误差（RMSE）分布情况，第三行为Pearson相关系数分布情况。
图 2 逐月的ERA5日均温（a、d、g）、日最高温（b、e、h）和日最低温(c、f、i)的验证结果
第一行为平均绝对误差（MAE）的箱线图，第二行为平均相对误差（RMSE）的箱线图，第三行为Pearson相关系数的箱线图。
图 3 逐季度的ERA5日均温（a、d、g）、日最高温（b、e、h）和日最低温(c、f、i)的验证结果
第一行为平均绝对误差（MAE）的箱线图，第二行为平均相对误差（RMSE）的箱线图，第三行为Pearson相关系数的箱线图。
图 4 不同气候区的ERA5日均温（a、d、g）、日最高温（b、e、h）和日最低温(c、f、i)的验证结果
第一行为平均绝对误差（MAE）的箱线图，第二行为平均相对误差（RMSE）的箱线图，第三行为Pearson相关系数的箱线图。
图 5 不同海拔梯度的ERA5日均温（a、d、g）、日最高温（b、e、h）和日最低温(c、f、i)的验证结果
第一行为平均绝对误差（MAE）的箱线图，第二行为平均相对误差（RMSE）的箱线图，第三行为Pearson相关系数的箱线图。
图 7 年热浪（a、c、e）和寒潮（b、d、f）事件验证结果
第一行为平均绝对误差（MAE）的分布情况，第二行为平均相对误差（RMSE）的分布情况，第三行为Pearson相关系数的分布情况。
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