WRF/WRF-Hydro气象-水文耦合模式的误差传递特征——以漳河流域径流预报为例

丛琳沂; 高玉芳; 彭涛; 胡泊

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2023.081

WRF/WRF-Hydro气象-水文耦合模式的误差传递特征——以漳河流域径流预报为例

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2023.081

丛琳沂¹,
高玉芳^{1, 2, ,},
彭涛^{2, 3},
胡泊²

1.
南京信息工程大学应用气象学院，江苏南京 210044
2.
中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所/湖北省暴雨监测与预警重点试验室，湖北武汉 430205
3.
三峡国家气候观象台，湖北宜昌 443099

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划 2022YFC3004003

国家重点研发计划 2018YFC1506803

国家重点研发计划 2018YFC1507204

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41675102

中国气象局创新发展专项 CXFZ2022J018

中国气象局创新发展专项 CXFZ2022J019

湖北省气象局科技发展基金 2020Q03

详细信息

通讯作者:
高玉芳，女，山东省人，副教授，主要从事水文气象研究及相关应用工作。E-mail: gaoyf@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P437
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-03-11
- 修回日期: 2023-08-24
- 网络出版日期: 2024-03-16
- 刊出日期: 2023-12-20

ERROR PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTECS OF WRF/WRF-HYDRO METEOROLOGICAL-HYDROLOGICAL COUPLING MODEL: TAKING THE RUNOFF FORECASTING IN ZHANGHE RIVER BASIN AS AN EXAMPLE

CONG Linyi¹,
GAO Yufang^{1, 2
, ,},
PENG Tao^{2, 3},
HU Bo²

1.
School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2.
Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430205, China
3.
Sanxia National Climate Observatory, Yichang, Hubei 443099, China

摘要

摘要: 在中小流域，有效的洪水预见期对调度决策、防洪减灾尤其重要。以漳河流域为研究区域，基于WRF模式和WRF-Hydro水文模型建立WRF/WRF-Hydro气象-水文耦合模式，探讨不同预见期WRF模式预报降雨对径流预报效果的影响，以及气象-水文模型之间的误差传递特征。（1）不同预见期下WRF模式预报的降雨峰值随预见期增长偏差越大。预见期为06 h和12 h时较预见期较长时（24 h、48 h），降雨量和峰值出现时间预报误差较小，降雨落区预报明显较好。（2）基于WRF/WRF-Hydro气象-水文耦合的径流预报结果表明，预见期越长洪峰流量及径流总量偏差越大。06 h和12 h预见期下的径流预报结果都较好，平均相关系数、平均纳什系数分别提高0.15、0.69。（3）模式之间的误差传递会因预见期长短和降雨预报效果有一定的差异。预见期为06 h和12 h时，数值天气预报误差传递给水文模型后有放大、有缩小。预见期较长时（24 h、48 h）随预见期加长，水文模型放大数值天气预报误差的程度越大，但是通过定量分析发现降雨误差和径流误差之间没有明显的线性关系。
- 气象-水文耦合 /
- 预见期 /
- 降雨-径流预报 /
- 漳河流域 /
- 误差传递
Abstract: Effective flood forecast periods are important for scheduling decisions making, flood prevention, and disaster mitigation in small and medium river basins. In this study, a WRF/WRF-Hydro meteorologicalhydrological coupling model is established based on the WRF model and the WRF-Hydro model to explore the influence of WRF precipitation on runoff forecasting in Zhanghe River Basin under different forecast periods and the propagation of uncertainty from meteorological model to hydrological model. The results show that: (1) The more extended the forecast period, the more serious the overestimation of the rainfall peak predicted by the WRF model under different forecast periods. Under 06 h and 12 h forecast periods, the forecast error of rainfall amount and peak precipitation time is smaller, and the forecast of rainfall area is obviously better than that under longer forecast periods (24 h and 48 h). (2) The runoff forecast results of the meteorological-hydrological coupling model show that the longer the forecast period, the more serious the overestimation of runoff peak. The runoff forecast results under 06 h and 12 h forecast periods are better, and the average correlation coefficient and average Nash coefficient increase by 0.15 and 0.69 respectively. (3) The error propagation characteristics between models are different due to the length of forecast period and the effect of rainfall forecast. Under 06 h and 12 h forecast periods, the error of numerical weather forecast is magnified and reduced after propagation to the hydrological model. Under longer forecast period (24 h and 48 h), the longer the forecast period, the greater the hydrological model amplifies the error of numerical weather forecast.
- meteorological-hydrological coupling /
- forecast period /
- rainfall-runoff forecasting /

HTML全文

图 1 漳河流域高程及水系分布

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图 2 漳河流域高程及水系分布

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图 3 WRF/WRF-Hydro气象-水文耦合模式运行框架

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图 4 漳河流域5场个例累计降雨空间分布图

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图 5 不同预见期下WRF模式面平均雨量及累计雨量随时间变化

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图 6 漳河流域5场洪水过程径流预报结果

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图 7 降雨、径流的统计指标随预见期变化

RR₁为降雨预报结果与融合数据相关系数，RR₂为径流预报结果与融合数据径流模拟结果相关系数；|PE₁|为降雨峰值预报误差，|PE₂|为洪峰流量预报误差；|TE₁|为累计降雨预报误差，|TE₂|为径流总量预报误差。

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图 8 误差散点图

a.降雨峰现时差和径流峰现时差；b.降雨峰值误差和径流峰值误差；c.降雨总量误差和径流总量误差。

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表 1 漳河流域2015—2018年5场洪水过程

洪水编号	洪水过程（UTC）	峰值流量（m³/s）	累计面雨量（mm）
20150630	063000—070106	456	35.50
20150714	071412—071612	507	50.76
20160630	063000—070300	1 340	62.41
20170708	070806—071006	856	62.34
20180704	070400—070700	384	38.84

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表 2 WRF-Hydro模型的主要参数化方案

WRF-HydroV5.0.3	设置
陆面模型	Noah-MP模式
壤中及地表汇流	最大坡降法
地下水模型	指数型出流模型
河道汇流	基于网格点的扩散波方法
陆面模型积分步长	1 h
汇流模型积分步长	6 s

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表 3 率定及验证场次逐小时模拟径流的评估结果

洪水参数	洪水编号	RR	流量相对误差/%		NSE	ΔT/h
洪水参数	洪水编号	RR	\|PE\|	\|TE\|	NSE	ΔT/h
率定	20150630	0.88	14.61	14.28	0.75	0 h
	20150714	0.94	18.16	11.07	0.87	0 h
	20160630	0.91	17.75	16.71	0.78	0 h
验证	20170708	0.92	14.60	11.52	0.83	0 h
验证	20180704	0.88	15.26	6.94	0.77	1 h

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