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热带海温对珠江三角洲春季灰霾日数年际变化的影响

张思球 李春晖 谷德军 林爱兰

张思球, 李春晖, 谷德军, 林爱兰. 热带海温对珠江三角洲春季灰霾日数年际变化的影响[J]. 热带气象学报, 2024, 40(4): 547-556. doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.049
引用本文: 张思球, 李春晖, 谷德军, 林爱兰. 热带海温对珠江三角洲春季灰霾日数年际变化的影响[J]. 热带气象学报, 2024, 40(4): 547-556. doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.049
ZHANG Siqiu, LI Chunhui, GU Dejun, LIN Ailan. Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on the Interannual Variability of Spring Haze[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2024, 40(4): 547-556. doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.049
Citation: ZHANG Siqiu, LI Chunhui, GU Dejun, LIN Ailan. Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on the Interannual Variability of Spring Haze[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2024, 40(4): 547-556. doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.049

热带海温对珠江三角洲春季灰霾日数年际变化的影响

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.049
基金项目: 

广东省基础与应用基础研究基金 2019A1515011808

2019A1515011808 2021B1212020016

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    李春晖,女,广东省人,研究员,主要从事热带天气气候、季节内振荡和短期气候预测。E-mail: chli@gd121.cn

  • 中图分类号: P461

Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on the Interannual Variability of Spring Haze

  • 摘要: 利用1979—2018年广东省86站气象观测数据、NCEP再分析资料和ERSST海温资料,采用统计方法分析了年际尺度上热带海温对广东省珠江三角洲(简称珠三角)区域春季灰霾(SHDPRD)的影响。结果表明,东南太平洋海温(ISSTSEP)对SHDPRD起主导作用。低层,当东南太平洋海温异常偏冷时,协同变化效应促使南印度洋海温也异常偏冷,激发冷Kelvin波东传,引起西太平洋Ekman辐合,导致异常气旋环流出现。异常气旋环流东北风通过等熵滑动机制诱发异常下沉运动,减少华南降水。高层,与ISSTSEP有密切相关的是500 hPa正EU遥相关,使得广东温度降低,降水偏少。EU遥相关调控局地气象要素,形成有利于灰霾形成的气象要素条件。反之亦然。受异常环流影响,与珠三角春季灰霾日数紧密联系的是降水、垂直速度和对流稳定度,其次是边界层厚度和低层东北风,最后是水汽。ENSO对SHDPRD有一定的调制作用。在El Niño(La Niña)年春季,珠三角水汽增加(减少),垂直上升(下沉)运动增强,降水增多(减少),广东灰霾偏少(多)。

     

  • 图  1  1979—2018年广东省春季灰霾总日数EOF分解第一模态分布(a),相应时间序列变化(b),珠三角29个站分布(c)和珠三角区域平均春季总灰霾日数总的(黑实线)、年际(红色实线)和年代际变化曲线(蓝色虚线)(d)

    单位:天。

    图  2  SHDPRD与春季海温的年际分量之间的相关分布

    阴影为通过90%置信水平下显著检验。绿色框表示具有显著相关性的关键区域。

    图  3  春季海温(a,单位:℃)、降水场(b,单位:mm·day-1)和850 hPa风场(m·s-1)投影到东南太平洋海温(ISSTSEP)指数上的回归系数分布图

    超过90%置信水平的检验用阴影和绿色粗箭头表示。

    图  4  回归到ISSTSEP沿20~25 °N纬向剖面的Walker环流分布(a)和沿110~140 °E的经向Hadley环流(矢量;单位:m·s-1)分布(b)

    超过90%置信水平的检验用阴影和粗箭头表示。

    图  5  春季850 hPa(a)、500 hPa(b) 和200 hPa(c)风场(m·s-1)和位势高度(gpm)分别投影到ISSTSEP

    其中阴影区为通过90%置信度检验。黑色矩形框为珠三角。

    图  6  各气象要素场回归到IEU的空间分布湿度(a,单位:kg·kg-1),500 hPa垂直速度(b,单位:10-3 Pa·s-1),850 hPa经向风(c,单位:m·s-1),Δθe( d,单位:K),PBLH(e,单位:m),降水(f,单位:mm·d-1)以及垂直速度(g,单位:10-3 Pa·s-1),湿度(h,单位:kg·kg-1),温度(i,单位:℃)和相当位温(K)的垂直剖面回归分布

    其中阴影区为通过90%置信度检验。黑色矩形框为珠三角。

    图  7  1979—2018年期间SHDPRD(柱状图:天)的年际变化时间序列

    不同的颜色表示ISSTSEP不同海温下的灰霾日数,红色代表暖异常,蓝色代表冷异常,灰色代表中性状态。红色三角形为El Niño,十字为La Niña。黑色实线表示SHDPRD年平均值,虚线表示高于(低于)0.75个标准差数值。

    图  8  图 5,但为El Niño与40年气候场差值分布。

    图  9  图 8,但为La Niña年。

    表  1  SHDPRD和局地气象要素的相关系数.

    局地气象要素 Shum Omega V850 Δθe PBLH Rain
    SHDPRD -0.26* 0.33** -0.27* -0.32** 0.28* -0.35**
    其中:*为超过95%的置信水平检验,**为超过90%的置信水平检验。
    Shum:1 000 hPa比湿;Omega:500 hPa垂直速度;V850:850 hPa经向风;Δθe:对流稳定度;PBLH:边界层高度;Rain:降水。
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2023-10-09
  • 修回日期:  2024-01-12
  • 网络出版日期:  2024-10-15
  • 刊出日期:  2024-08-20

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