Interannual Bimodal Variability of Tropical Cyclones Landing in Guangdong and Their Asymmetric Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature
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摘要: 基于1968—2022年后汛期登陆广东热带气旋（TC）频数、再分析资料和海温数据，采用小波分析、合成分析等方法，探讨了登陆广东TC频次的年际变化特征，重点揭示了其年际变率中存在的双模态特征及其与海表温度的非对称关系。（1）登陆广东TC频数存在显著的准3年和准8年双模态周期振荡，两者变化幅度相当。（2）不同模态下，影响TC登陆的大气环流配置存在显著差异。在两个模态的登陆广东TC频数异常偏多年，西太平洋副热带高压（简称“副高”）皆表现为偏西偏强，有利于TC登陆广东。而在TC频数异常偏少年，两种模态对应的副高形势明显不同：准3年模态下的副高偏弱偏东，易导致TC过早北上；准8年尺度上副高偏西偏强，但其南侧的显著异常东风引导TC西行。（3）登陆广东热带气旋频数与海表温度的关系呈非对称性。在准3年时间尺度上，登陆广东TC频数偏多年冬季SST主要显著正距平出现在赤道东太平洋和热带北印度洋至南海。在准8年时间尺度上，登陆广东TC频数偏多年冬季SST主要显著正距平出现在赤道中太平洋；而频数偏少年冬季热带印度洋SST整体异常偏高。从冬季厄尔尼诺事件向夏季拉尼娜事件转换的年份，登陆广东TC频数偏多。本研究有助于加深对登陆广东TC变化特征的认识，其与海表温度关系的非对称性对做好登陆广东热带气旋频数的短期气候预测有一定指导意义。Abstract: This study investigates the interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in Guangdong during the post-flood season (1968-2022), using TC frequency data, reanalysis products, and sea surface temperature (SST) data. Through wavelet and composite analysis, we specifically explore the prominent bimodal characteristics in their interannual variability and their asymmetric relationship with SST. The main findings are as follows: (1) The frequency of landfalling TCs in Guangdong exhibits significant quasi-3-year and quasi-8-year bimodal periodic oscillations, with comparable amplitudes. (2) Under different modes, significant variations exist in atmospheric circulation configurations that influence TC landfalls. During years with more landfalling TCs for both quasi-3-year and quasi-8-year timescales, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) shifts westward and strengthens, facilitating TC landfalls in Guangdong. Conversely, the WPSH configurations during less landfalling TC years are distinct for each mode. On the quasi-biennial timescale, the WPSH is weaker and retreats eastward, causing TCs to recurve northward prematurely; however, on the quasi-3-year timescale, the WPSH remains westward and strong, with significant anomalous easterlies on its southern flank that guide TCs westward. (3) The relationship between the landfalling TC frequency in Guangdong and SST is asymmetric. On the quasi-3-year timescale, years with more landfalling TCs are associated with significant positive winter SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific and from the tropical North Indian Ocean to the South China Sea (SCS). On the quasi-8-year timescale, more TC landfall years correspond to significant positive winter SST anomalies mainly in the equatorial central Pacific, while less TC landfall years generally exhibit positive winter SST anomalies across the entire tropical Indian Ocean. In addition, landfalling TC frequency tends to be higher in transition years from winter El Niño to summer La Niña conditions. This study enhances our understanding of the variability characteristics of landfalling TCs in Guangdong, and the identified asymmetric relationship with SST provides valuable guidance for improving short-term climate predictions of landfalling TC frequency in this region.
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图 1 1968—2022年后汛期登陆广东TC频数距平（a）、墨西哥帽小波分析（b）与小波功率谱（c）
（b）中的浅色和深色填色区分别表示超过显著性水平0.10、0.05的区域，两边橙色交叉区域表示边界效应的影响域；（c）中的较细、较粗虚线分别为0.10、0.05显著性水平值。
图 3 1968—2022年500 hPa风场距平（箭头，单位：m·s-1）、500 hPa高度场（橙色实线，单位：gpm）及其气候态（绿色虚线，单位：gpm）
a.登陆广东TC异常偏多的年份；b.登陆广东TC异常偏少的年份。黑色箭头表示超过显著性水平0.10的区域。
图 4 500 hPa风场距平（箭头，单位：m·s-1）、500 hPa高度场（橙色实线，单位：gpm）和气候平均高度场（绿色虚线，单位：gpm）
（a）和（b）分别为准3年时间序列中登陆广东TC偏多和偏少的年份；（c）和（d）分别为准8年时间序列中登陆广东TC偏多和偏少的年份。
图 6 冬季SST距平合成分析（单位：℃，实线为正距平，虚线为负距平，填色区为超过显著性水平0.05的区域）
（a）和（b）分别为准3年时间序列中登陆广东TC偏多和偏少的年份；（c）和（d）分别为准8年时间序列中登陆广东TC偏多和偏少的年份。
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