Macro and Micro Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Systems and Non-extreme Precipitation Systems over South China During the Warm Season Based on TRMM Observations from 1998 to 2013
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摘要: 本研究利用Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission（TRMM）卫星数据研究了华南地区1998—2013年暖季（4—9月）极端降水系统（Extreme Precipitation Event, 简称EPE）的精细结构和环境特征，并对比分析了非极端降水系统（NonEPE）包括雷暴（Thunderstorm）和未造成极端降水的强对流系统NonEPE_Inten。利用华南地区约1 500个站点的小时降水数据，1981—2013年气候统计的99.9th作为极端小时降水阈值。EPE（NonEPE）定义为降水中心强度达到（未达到）极端小时降水阈值且降水面积至少为100 km2的对流系统。结果表明，华南EPE对流核的水平尺度达到了中β尺度（45~50 km），与雷暴尺度相当；大部分EPE发生在组织性强的中尺度对流系统（>100 km）内，NonEPE多数发生在尺度相对较小的对流系统（< 100 km）中。卫星微波观测表明EPE含有丰富的冰相粒子，冰相过程显著。EPE与强对流的垂直结构具有显著差异，它们的雷达反射率因子在融化层以下分别增长了6~7 dBZ和2~3 dBZ，表明EPE暖雨（碰并）过程更活跃，其雨滴在暖云中高效增长。EPE的环境特征表现为整层大气相对湿度高，700~925 hPa风切变强，暖云厚度更深厚，但对流有效位能（CAPE）较弱，低层气温较低。Abstract: This study investigates the precipitation structures and environmental conditions of Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs) over South China during the warm season (April-September, 1998-2013) using TRMM satellite data. The structure and environmental characteristics of the Non-Extreme Precipitation Events (NonEPEs), including thunderstorm, and the convective NonEPEs (NonEPE_Inten), which lacks extreme precipitation, are compared and analyzed. The hourly extreme precipitation threshold is defined using the 99.9th percentile of hourly precipitation data of about 1 500 stations in South China during 1981-2013. EPE (NonEPE) refers a convective system in which the intensity of the precipitation center meets (does not meet) the extreme hourly precipitation threshold, and the precipitation area is at least 100 km2. Results indicate that the horizontal scale of EPE over South China exhibits meso-β scale (45-50 km), which is the scale of thunderstorms. Most EPEs occur in organized mesoscale convective systems (horizontal scale > 100 km), while NonEPEs primarily occur in relatively small-scale convective systems (horizontal scale < 100 km). Satellite microwave observations indicate that EPEs contain abundant ice particles. The vertical structure of EPE is significantly different from that of strong convections. The radar reflectivity of EPE (non-EPE) increases by 6-7 dBZ (2-3 dBZ) below the melt layer, indicating EPE has a more active warm rain or collision-coalescence process with higher raindrop growth efficiency. In terms of environmental conditions, EPE show higher relative humidity, stronger 700-925 hPa wind shear, thicker warm cloud depth, weaker convective effective potential energy (CAPE), and lower low-level temperature.
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图 1 研究区域地形图（a）；地面小时雨强累计概率（Cumulative Distribution Function，CDF）分布图（b）；降水系统（PF）、对流系统（ConvPF）和极端降水系统（EPE）例子：星载雷达反演的近地面降水（c），Parent_PF用最大的椭圆标出，ConvPF包含其中，用小椭圆标出，ConvPF达到极端小时降水阈值即EPE；层状性降水与对流性降水类型划分（d）
图 3 不同类型对流系统累计概率（Cumulative Distribution Function，CDF，下文同）分布图：最大降水强度（a）；闪电频率（b）
不同符号与颜色表示不同类型的对流，包括EPE（红色三角形）、NonEPE（蓝色圆形）、NonEPE_Inten（橙色星型）、Thunderstorm（绿色方形）。
图 5 各类对流系统箱线图：20 dBZ回波顶高（a）、30 dBZ回波顶高（b）、85 GHz最小极化修正亮温（c）、37 GHz最小极化修正亮温（d）
矩形箱上下两端边分别为25百分位数、75百分位数，矩形箱中的横线为中位数，异常值分别为第5百分数和第95百分数，不同颜色表示不同的对流。
图 6 不同类型对流的雷达回波的高度-频率等值线图（Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams，CFAD）和垂直廓线：EPE（a）、NonEPE（b）、Median Profile（c）、Thunderstorm（d）、NonEPE_Inten（e）、Median Profile（f）
实线、虚线与点线分别表示中位数、第10百分位数与第90百分数。（c）、（f）为不同类型对流的中位数垂直廓线，不同颜色表示不同类型对流。
图 7 不同对流物理量箱线图与环境变量差异廓线：CAPE（a）、CIN（b）、气温廓线（c）、暖云厚度（d）、700~925 hPa的风切变（e）、相对湿度廓线（f）
不同颜色的廓线表示EPE与不同系统相减。
表 1 不同类型的对流系统的定义及样本数量，时间范围为1998—2013年4—9月（包含台风降水有关的对流系统），空间范围为研究区域的陆地
类别 对流系统定义 样本数量 EPE Max nearsurf rainrate ≥50.4 mm·h-1 4 661 NonEPE Max nearsurf rainrate: 5~50 mm·h-1 36 088 NonEPE_Inten NonEPE & echotop30 ≥8 km 2 490 Thunderstorm Flashrate ≥1 min-1 5 546 
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