Identification and Evaluation Analysis of Wind Power Ramp Events—A Case Study of Shanxi Province
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摘要: 基于2022年3月—2023年3月山西省全省风电场逐15 min风电总输出功率的实测和预测数据，对全省风电交易市场“功率预测曲线”进行误差分析，通过制定识别、匹配和评分方法，对风电爬坡事件的预报效果开展评估，进一步利用ERA5再分析资料对大范围风电爬坡现象发生的天气背景及演变开展分析。结果显示：（1）各季节早晨08时前后（北京时，下同）和夜间20时前后为每日预测误差最大的两个时段，同时两个时段误差离散度也相对较大，最大值可达4 000 MW。（2）弱爬坡事件的发生频率明显高于强爬坡事件，同时弱爬坡事件的预报技能得分（0.23）也高于强爬坡事件（0.05）。（3）风电爬坡事件主要发生在冬季和春季，每日08:00前后和19:00前后分别为下降爬坡事件和上升爬坡事件的集中发生时段，下午至前半夜以上升爬坡事件为主，后半夜至上午以下降爬坡事件为主。（4）当山西省位于地面高压后部或高空槽前时，地面高压的加深发展或槽前低空急流的建立会导致全省风电功率爬坡事件的发生。Abstract: Based on observation and forecast data of 15-min wind power output of all wind farms in Shanxi Province from March 2022 to March 2023, this study analyzed the errors of "power prediction curves" in the provincial wind power trading market. The forecasting effectiveness of wind power ramp events was evaluated by developing identification, matching, and scoring methods. The ERA5 reanalysis data were used to analyze the weather background and evolution of large-scale wind power ramp-up events. The results are shown as follows: (1) For all seasons, the periods around 08: 00 (Beijing Time, same below) and 20:00 are the two daily peaks of forecast error. Meanwhile, the error dispersion for the two periods is relatively large, with a maximum value of up to 4 000 MW. (2) The occurrence frequency for weak ramp events is significantly higher than strong ramp events. The forecasting skill score for weak ramp events is 0.23, which is higher than strong ramp events (0.05). (3) Wind power ramp events mainly occur in winter and spring. The periods around 8:00 and 19:00 each day are the concentrated occurrence times for ramp-down and ramp-up events, respectively. Ramp-up events mainly occur from afternoon to the first half of the night, while ramp-down events are dominant from the second half of the night to the next morning. (4) When Shanxi Province is located behind a high surface pressure or in front of an upper-air trough, the intensification of the surface high pressure or the establishment of a pre-trough low-level jet will lead to province-wide wind power ramp-up events.
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Key words:
- wind power ramp /
- wind power /
- forecasting skill score /
- synoptic analysis
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图 10 2023年1月10日16:00（a）、10日20:00（b）、11日16:00（c）、11日20:00（d）地面气压场（黑实线，单位：hPa）；2023年1月10日16:00（e）、10日20:00（f）、11日16:00（g）、11日20:00（h）850 hPa等压面位势高度场
（蓝实线，单位：gpm，下同）及风场（风矢，单位：m·s-1，下同）；2023年1月10日16:00（i）、10日20:00（j）、11日16:00（k）、11日20:00（l）700 hPa位势高度场及风场
红色三角形表示山西省，黑色箭头表示高压移动方向。表 2 8种场景爬坡事件的预报技能得分范围
预测值 观测值 上升爬坡 空 下降爬坡 上升爬坡 1.0~0 0 -1.0~0 空 0 — 0.0 下降爬坡 -1.0~0 0 1.0~0 
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