基于人体舒适度的珠江流域高温热浪脆弱人口暴露度研究

李韵; 苏布达; 黄金龙; 陈思蓉; 董保华; 姜彤

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.073

基于人体舒适度的珠江流域高温热浪脆弱人口暴露度研究

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.073

李韵¹,
苏布达¹,
黄金龙¹,
陈思蓉²,
董保华^3, ,,
姜彤^{1, 4}

1.
南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院，江苏南京 210044
2.
广西壮族自治区气候中心，广西南宁 530022
3.
江西省气候中心，江西南昌 330096
4.
江苏第二师范学院江苏省气候风险模拟与城乡智慧治理重点建设实验室/地理科学学院，江苏南京 210013

基金项目:

广西重点研发专项桂科AB22080060

江西省气象局重点项目 JX2021Z06

江西省气象局重点项目 JX2022Z08

中国气象局青年创新团队项目 CMA2024QN15

中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室开放课题 2025007

南昌国家气候观象台专项 JX2023Z09

详细信息

通讯作者:
董保华，女，山西省人，高级工程师，主要从事气象服务与应用气象研究。E-mail：dongbaohua_jx@163.com

中图分类号: P49
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-04-30
- 修回日期: 2025-10-28
- 网络出版日期: 2026-01-04
- 刊出日期: 2025-12-20

Vulnerable Population Exposure to Heatwaves in the Pearl River Basin Based on Comfort Index of Human Body

1.
School of Geographical Science/Institute of Disaster Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2.
Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022, China
3.
Jiangxi Climate Center, Nanchang 330096, China
4.
Jiangsu Second Normal University, Laboratory for Climate Risk and Urban-Rural Smart Governance, School of Geography, Nanjing 210013, China

摘要

摘要: 珠江流域是气候变化敏感区，气候变暖导致热浪灾害事件频发。人体舒适度指数综合了多种气象要素，能更好地评估热浪对人体健康的影响。基于该指数定义高温热浪，采用气象观测数据和包含7个共享社会经济路径情景的5个CMIP6气候模式数据，结合共享社会经济路径（SSP1-5）下人口特征，分析历史时期（1961—2022年）和21世纪近期（2021—2040年）、中期（2041—2060年）、末期（2081—2100年）珠江流域夏季高温热浪及65岁以上脆弱人口暴露度特征。结果表明，（1）1961—2022年珠江流域夏季高温热浪日数单站最大可达42 d，最大持续时间达16 d；年均热浪影响面积约16.5×10⁴ km²，珠江三角洲地区高温热浪最为严重。（2）21世纪近、中、末期流域平均夏季热浪日数相对基准期（1995—2014年）分别增加约7~9 d、11~29 d和5~75 d，最大持续时间增加约2~4 d、5~10 d和2~50 d，珠江流域上游高海拔地区增幅较大；热浪影响面积不断扩大，21世纪末期热浪可能影响整个流域。（3）1961—2022年年均夏季脆弱人口暴露度约为2.86×10⁷人·d，2019年珠江三角洲最大可达1.08×10⁸人·d；未来脆弱人口暴露度增幅显著，近、中、末期分别约为基准期的6.4~7.8倍、18.5~38.4倍和11.9~117.7倍，珠江流域东部地区最为严重。（4）气候和人口变化的综合作用是决定珠江流域未来脆弱人口暴露度变化的主导因素，且其贡献率随时间逐渐增加，未来亟需加强高温风险综合防范工作。
- 高温热浪 /
- 人体舒适度 /
- 脆弱人口暴露度 /
- 贡献率 /
- 珠江流域
Abstract: The Pearl River Basin is a climate-sensitive area where climate warming leads to frequent heatwave disasters. The Comfort Index of Human Body integrates multiple meteorological elements to better assess the impact of heatwaves on human health. Based on the index for defining heatwaves, meteorological observations and five CMIP6 climate model data containing seven SSPs were used to analyse the characteristics of summer heatwaves and exposed vulnerable population in the Pearl River Basin during the historical period (1961-2022) and the 21st century's near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060), and end-term (2081-2100). The results show: (1) From 1961 to 2022, the maximum number of summer heatwave days in the Pearl River Basin can be up to 42 days, with the longest duration lasting up to 16 days. The average annual heatwave-affected area is approximately 165,000 km², with the Pearl River Delta experiencing the most severe heatwaves. (2) In the near, mid, and end terms of the 21st century, compared to the baseline period (1995-2014), the basin-wide average number of summer heatwave days will increase by approximately 7-9 days, 11-29 days, and 5-75 days, respectively, with the maximum duration increasing by about 2-4 days, 5-10 days, and 2-50 days. The increase is more significant in the high-altitude areas upstream of the Pearl River Basin; the heatwave-affected area continues to expand, and the heatwaves in the late 21st century may influence the entire basin. (3) From 1961 to 2022, the annual average exposed vulnerable population in summer was about 28.6 million persondays, and the maximum in the Pearl River Delta can reach 108 million person-days in 2019. Future vulnerable population exposure will increase significantly, about 6.4-7.8 times, 18.5-38.4 times, and 11.9-117.7 times of the baseline period in the near, mid, and end terms, respectively, especially in the Eastern Pearl River Basin. (4) The combined effect of climate and population change is the dominant factor determining the future changes in the exposure of vulnerable populations in the Pearl River Basin, and its contribution rate gradually increases over time. There is an urgent need to strengthen heatwave prevention measures in the future.
- heatwaves /
- Comfort Index of Human Body /
- vulnerable population exposure /
- contribution rate /
- Pearl River Basin

HTML全文

图 1 珠江流域地形地貌及代表站点和格点位置分布

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图 2 2020—2100年共享社会经济路径下珠江流域脆弱人口数（a）及其相对于基准期的相对变化率（b）变化

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图 3 1961—2014年珠江流域夏季人体舒适度指数观测值与气候模式模拟值时间变化（a）及观测值（b）与降尺度与偏差订正后气候模式模拟值（c）空间变化

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图 4 珠江流域历史观测期高温热浪日数（a）和21世纪近、中、末期高温热浪日数增幅及其相对变化率（b）变化

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图 5 珠江流域不同情景下21世纪近、中、末期高温热浪日数相对于基准期变化空间分布

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图 6 珠江流域历史观测期（a）和21世纪近、中、末期（b）高温热浪最大持续变化

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图 7 珠江流域历史观测期（a）和21世纪近、中、末期（b）高温热浪影响面积变化

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图 8 珠江流域历史观测期（a）和21世纪近、中、末期（b）高温热浪脆弱人口暴露度变化

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图 9 珠江流域不同情景下21世纪近、中、末期高温热浪脆弱人口暴露度相对于基准期倍数空间分布

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图 10 珠江流域不同情景下21世纪近、中、末期脆弱人口暴露度影响因子贡献率

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