Abstract:
The tropics are regions with the most vigorous convective activity globally. Frequent convection significantly impacts the global energy cycle, water cycle, and climate system. With global warming, increasing attention is being paid to how extreme convective weather will change in the future. This study examines the climatic characteristics of tropical extreme convective systems and their response to global warming based on simulations from a global atmospheric model with a horizontal resolution of 14 km (NICAM) and TRMM satellite observational data. The results show that the NICAM model effectively simulates the atmospheric environment and convective activity in tropical regions. The correlation coefficients between simulated near-surface temperature and humidity and ERA-5 reanalysis data are 0.65 and 0.89, respectively. The spatial and temporal correlations of simulated extreme deep convective systems with satellite observations reach 0.53 and 0.77, respectively. A comparison of 30-year historical (1979— 2008) and future (2075—2104) extreme convection simulations reveals that with global warming, specific humidity in the tropics tends to increase overall, but relative humidity over land decreases. This indicates that the tropical continental atmosphere will become drier in the future. Three distinct types of extreme convective systems are projected to increase overall, with the increase in extreme convection over tropical oceans being more pronounced than over tropical land.