基于NICAM的热带地区极端对流活动对全球变暖响应的研究

贾丁; 吴学珂; 赵中阔; 李晓彤; 林嘉豪; 胡宇航; 胡国豪

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2026.024

基于NICAM的热带地区极端对流活动对全球变暖响应的研究

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2026.024

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院/半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730000
2.
中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所，广东广州 510641

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 42275068

中国气象局“热带气象”重点创新团队 CMA2023ZD08

详细信息

通讯作者:
吴学珂，男，甘肃省人，副教授，主要从事雷暴气象学、极端对流天气与气候变化研究。E-mail: wuxk@lzu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P467
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-12-31
- 修回日期: 2025-04-02
- 刊出日期: 2026-08-20

Response of Tropical Extreme Convective Activity to Global Warming Based on NICAM

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences/Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2.
Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510641, China

摘要

摘要: 热带地区是全球对流活动最旺盛的地区，频繁的对流活动能够对全球能量循环、水循环及气候系统产生深远影响。随着全球变暖加剧，极端对流天气的未来演变趋势受到广泛关注。本研究基于一个水平分辨率为14 km的全球大气模式（NICAM）的模拟结果，结合TRMM卫星观测资料对热带地区极端对流系统的气候特征及其对全球变暖的响应进行了研究。结果表明：NICAM模式对热带地区的大气环境与对流活动有很好的模拟能力，其模拟的近地面层温度和湿度与ERA5再分析资料的空间分布相关系数分别达到0.65和0.89，模拟的极端深对流系统在空间和时间上与卫星观测结果的相关系数分别达到0.53和0.77。对比NICAM模拟的历史时期（1979—2008年）与未来时期（2075—2104年）各30年极端对流特征发现，随着全球变暖，热带地区整体比湿呈增加趋势，但陆地上的相对湿度却呈减小趋势，说明热带陆地区域的大气未来将会变得更加干燥。此外，不同类型的极端对流系统整体上均呈增加的趋势，尤其热带海洋上的极端对流增加趋势相比热带陆地更为明显。
- 热带地区 /
- 极端对流系统 /
- 全球大气模式 /
- TRMM卫星 /
- 全球变暖
Abstract: The tropics represent the most dynamically active region for deep convection globally, exerting a profound influence on the Earth's global energy cycle, hydrological cycle, and climate system. With global warming, increasing attention is being focused on how extreme convective weather will change in the future. This study examines the climatology of tropical extreme convective systems and their future projections using simulations from a global atmospheric model (NICAM) with a 14 km horizontal resolution against TRMM satellite observations. The results demonstrate that the NICAM model effectively reproduces the ambient atmospheric environment and convective activity in tropical regions, exhibiting correlation coefficients of 0.65 (near-surface temperature) and 0.89 (specific humidity) against ERA-5 reanalysis, respectively. The spatial and temporal correlations for extreme deep convective systems reach 0.53 and 0.77 with satellite observations, respectively. A comparison of 30-year historical (1979-2008) and future (2075-2104) extreme convection simulations reveals that while tropospheric specific humidity increases substantially under warming, but relative humidity over tropical land declines significantly, suggesting a robust trend toward drier tropical continental atmosphere in the future. Consequently, the frequency three distinct categories of extreme convective systems is projected to increase overall, with a markedly stronger enhancement over tropical oceans than over tropical landmasses.
- tropics /
- extreme convective systems /
- NICAM /
- TRMM satellite /
- global warming

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图 1 NICAM模拟的1998年2月25日对流个例的水成物粒子含量（a₁~f₁）和对应的雷达回波（a₂~f₂）垂直分布

a.雨水；b.云水；c. 云冰；d. 冰雹；e. 雪；f.总水成物粒子。

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图 2 热带地区NICAM模拟(a)和TRMM观测(b)的极端深对流频率空间分布对比

研究范围内六个子区域从西到东分别为太平洋中部、热带南美洲、大西洋中部、热带非洲、印度洋中部以及海洋性大陆。

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图 3 极端深对流频率的季节和区域时间变化

a~c.热带海洋、热带陆地和热带地区极端深对流频率TRMM观测数据(蓝色)和NICAM模拟结果(红色)的季节分布。d~e.六个热带子区域极端深对流频率的逐月时间分布，实线为观测数据，虚线为模拟结果（1998—2008年）。

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图 4 1979—2008年热带地区NICAM和ERA-5再现的温度场（t_2m，单位：K）和湿度场(q_2m，单位：g·kg^-1)空间分布

a和c为NICAM模拟的温度场和比湿场；b和d为ERA-5数据的温度场和比湿场分布。

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图 5 模式模拟的历史时期（1979—2008年）热带极端深对流(a)、极端强对流(b)和极端降水对流(c)的空间分布

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图 6 未来时期相比历史时期热带极端对流分布变化趋势空间分布

填色图为极端深对流(a)、极端强对流(b)以及极端降水对流(c)的空间分布变化，红色表示极端对流发生频率增加，蓝色表示极端对流发生频率减少；表格为热带地区、热带陆地和热带海洋以及六个子区域的三种极端对流的频数统计及其变化。表格中第一和第二列分别表示历史时期和未来时期，第三列为对流频数相对变化率，第四列表示全球温度平均每升高1 K对流频数的相对变化率。

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图 7 未来时期相比历史时期前0.5%的热带极端对流频率变化趋势空间分布

a.前0.5%的深对流；b.前0.5%的强对流；c.前0.5%的降水对流。填色部分红色表示发生频率增加，蓝色部分表示发生频率减少。

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图 8 未来时期相比历史时期2 m处环境场（t_2m、q_2m和RH_2m）的变化

a.温度场的变化；b.比湿场的变化；c. 相对湿度场。

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表 1 极端深对流（EDC）、极端强对流（ESC）和极端降水对流（EPC）对应特征参量阈值

极端对流类型	对流特征参量范围
极端深对流	maxht20 ≥ 14.3 km
极端强对流	maxZ ≥ 67.6 dBZ
极端降水对流	max_sfc_rain_rate ≥ 133.1 mm·h^-1

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表 2 热带地区NICAM和ERA-5近地面环境场（t_2m和q_2m）空间分布的相关系数（1979—2008年）

研究区域	t_2m	q_2m	研究区域	t_2m	q_2m
热带海洋	0.71	0.85	热带陆地	0.55	0.88
太平洋	0.96	0.69	热带南美洲	0.60	0.36
大西洋	0.85	0.94	热带非洲	0.79	0.79
印度洋	0.92	0.68	海洋性大陆	0.80	0.56
注：所有相关系数均已通过99%的显著性检验。

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表 3 未来时期相比历史时期对流特征量的变化

对流特征参量	百分位数	历史时期	未来时期
maxht20	前4.4%	14.3 km	15.8 km
maxht20	前0.5%	15.6 km	17.3 km
maxZ	前4.4%	67.6 dBZ	68.2 dBZ
maxZ	前0.5%	70.6 dBZ	71.2 dBZ
max_sfc_rain_rate	前4.4%	133.1 mm·h^-1	155.2 mm·h^-1
max_sfc_rain_rate	前0.5%	179.4 mm·h^-1	207.7 mm·h^-1

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表 4 未来时期相比历史时期热带地区、热带海洋以及热带陆地的2 m处环境场（t_2m、q_2m和RH_2m）的变化

	热带地区			热带海洋			热带陆地
	历史	未来	未来-历史	历史	未来	未来-历史	历史	未来	未来-历史
t_2m/K	299.4	302.0	2.6	298.9	301.2	2.3	300.7	304.3	3.7
q_2m/(g·kg^-1)	16.5	18.9	2.4	17.7	20.3	2.6	12.7	14.5	1.8
RH_2m/%	77.3	76.5	-0.8	83.8	84	0.2	56.2	52.4	-3.8

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