Mesoscale Convective Characteristics of Developing and Non-developing Tropical Disturbances over the Western North Pacific
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摘要: 本文利用多源卫星遥感观测数据，对西北太平洋区域发展为热带气旋（TC）的热带扰动的对流特征进行统计分析，并对比了其与未能发展扰动之间的差异。基于ERA5再分析资料，采用涡度质心定义扰动系统的中心位置，进行热带扰动的示踪，识别出充足的发展型扰动（Developing Disturbance, Dev）和非发展型扰动（Nondeveloping Disturbance, NonDev）轨迹样本。首先对比了两类扰动的大尺度环境特征，发现它们在初期阶段（-48 h之前）的动力环境特征比较相似，主要在相对湿度等热力因子特征上存在差异。本文侧重对比分析了两类扰动在初期阶段的对流特征。结果表明，相比于NonDev，Dev中的对流不但发生频率更高且分布更广泛。在相对于环境垂直风切变方向的空间分布上，Dev在顺切变区域中具有更高的冷云发生频率，在逆切变区域中具有更高的暖云发生频率；同时，Dev内部逆切变区域中的强对流面积覆盖率比NonDev更高。基于星载降水雷达数据分析显示，Dev在顺切变区域上的层状性降水面积占比更高；从-72~-24 h时段，内部逆切变区域的中等至深对流的24 h平均潜热加热率强度的增幅比内部顺切变区域更大。这些结果进一步揭示了可能与TC形成有关的对流特征。Abstract: This study investigates the convective characteristics associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific (WNP) using multi-source satellite datasets. The differences between developing (Dev) and non-developing (NonDev) tropical disturbances are analyzed. Based on the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data, disturbance centers were identified via the vorticity centroid and the positions of those tropical disturbance traced for the June to November period spanning 2000-2018, yielding sufficient samples for both Dev and NonDev groups. Analysis of the characteristics of large-scale environment reveals that while dynamic parameters are similar between the two groups in the early stage (prior to-48 h), evident disparities exist in thermodynamic variables, in particular relative humidity. Focusing on disturbances under comparable dynamic conditions, their convective characteristics were compared. The results indicate that Dev disturbances exhibit more widespread spatial distributions and higher temporal frequencies of convective activity than NonDev disturbances. Spatially, relative to the environmental vertical wind shear vector, Dev cases show a higher frequency of cold cloud coverage in the downshear quadrant and warm cloud coverage in the upshear quadrant. Furthermore, the Dev disturbances possess a larger fractional coverage of strong convection in the inner upshear region. Spaceborne precipitation radar observations show a higher proportion of stratiform precipitation area in Dev disturbances. Diagnostically, from-72 h to-48 h, the 24-hour average latent heating rate from moderate to deep convection increases more significantly in the inner upshear region than that in inner downshear region. Subsequently (from-48 h to-24 h), and the differential in average latent heating rate from-48 h to-24 h between inner and outer regions is more pronounced in the upshear region than that in downshear region. These findings further reveal the distinct convective characteristics and heating profiles that facilitate TC genesis.
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图 2 Dev(蓝色)与NonDev(绿色)在850 hPa平均相对涡度(a)，200~800 km内200 hPa与850 hPa之间的环境垂直风切变(b)，海表面温度(c)和700~500 hPa平均相对湿度(d)大小的分布
图 3 NonDev(a)以及Dev在-96~-72 h(b)、-72~-48 h(c)、-48~-24 h(d)、-24~0 h(e)合成的OW参数值(等值线，从0开始，逐1 × 10-9 s-2增加)以及相对湿度大小(填色；单位：%)的垂直经向剖面合成图(纬向上2 °范围内的平均结果)
图 4 NonDev(a)以及Dev在-96~-72 h(b)、-72~-48 h(c)、-48~-24 h(d)、-24~0 h(e)合成的850~700 hPa平均OWZ参数值(等值线，从2 × 10-5 s-1开始，逐1 × 10-5 s-1增加)、850 hPa水平风场(箭头；单位：m·s-1)以及800 hPa相对湿度(填色；单位：%)的合成水平分布
图 5 NonDev(a)以及Dev在-96~-48 h(b)、-48~-24 h(c)、-24~0 h(d)相对于环境垂直风切变的合成平均红外亮温大小（填色；单位：K）水平分布
黑色箭头为对应时段内的平均环境垂直风切变，其长度与其大小成正比，内部虚线圆半径大小均为2 °，外部虚线圆半径大小为5 °，虚直线与环境垂直风切变方向垂直。
图 6 NonDev(a)以及Dev在-96~-48 h(b)、-48~-24 h(c)、-24~0 h(d)相对于环境垂直风切变的合成平均小时降水强度（填色；单位：mm·h-1），其它同图 5
图 8 NonDev以及Dev在不同时段中的PCT85-89GHz小于250 K(a)、PCT85-89GHz大于260 K且V37GHz大于255 K(b)的发生频率大小分布，其它同图 5
图 9 扰动系统在200 km范围内的PCT85-89GHz在顺切变方位上小于250 K (a)、顺切变方位上小于225 K(b)、在逆切变方位上小于250 K(c)、在逆切变方位上小于225 K(d)占PCT85-89GHz小于275 K的面积比例的累积频率分布
图例括号内数字为样本数。
图 10 基于TRMM PR探测的不同类型的对流在200 km范围内的顺切变(蓝色)和逆切变(绿色)方位上的浅对流(a)、中等强度对流(b)、深对流(c)、层状性降水(d)的面积占200 km范围内的总降水面积的比例
图 11 基于TRMM PR的层状性降水（虚线）以及中等深度至深对流（实线）在内部区域的顺切变方位(a)和逆切变方位(b)上的潜热加热率的中位数水平；在外部区域的顺切变方位(c)和逆切变方位(d)上的潜热加热率的中位数水平
图例括号内数字为对流性降水有关的样本数。
表 1 追踪得到的热带扰动轨迹样本数以及相关的低轨道卫星扫描轨道数量
时段 -96~-72 h -72~-48 h -48~-24 h -24~0 h 发展型扰动 1 512 2 092 2 540 2 728 非发展型扰动 877 1 652 3 224 5 418 筛选过后非发展型扰动 256(29%) 512(31%) 1 020(32%) 1 657(31%) 被动微波轨道样本数 278/57 310/93 429/193 426/356 TRMM PR轨道样本数 264/37 359/65 600/133 833/227 注：0 h是TC中心附近最大持续性风速首次超过22 kt的时刻。扰动系统轨迹样本数以3 h为分辨率计数。在低轨道卫星的轨道样本数前面为发展型扰动，后面为非发展型扰动。 
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