Regional Disparities and Disaster Mechanisms of Typhoon Impacts in China from 2014 to 2023
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摘要: 基于2014—2023年中国台风灾情与气象数据, 本研究系统揭示了台风灾害的时空分异及致灾机制, 并评估防灾减灾成效。结果表明：台风生成量(年均24.8个)和登陆量(年均6.7个)呈微弱下降趋势, 但致灾台风数量逆势波动(年均8.0个, 极值差7.0个)。短历时暴雨风险显著加剧(小时降水极值增速$ 7.2 \mathrm{~mm} \cdot \mathrm{a}^{-1} $, 2023年达135.3 mm), 降水致灾贡献持续增强(IPT/IWT由2014年的1.31增至2023年的1.83)。灾害呈现"沿海高频高损、内陆低频高损"分异格局, 风雨综合影响指数(IPWT)为灾损核心驱动因子, 但致灾路径区域异质性显著：华南以风雨协同效应主导, 西南依赖持续性暴雨, 东北受强风直接破坏。尽管全国灾损指标显著改善(死亡失踪人口年均降速10.7人, 台风灾损综合评价指数(TDPr)降幅60.0%), 北方新兴风险区加速形成(河南、黑龙江IPWT增速 > 6% $ \mathrm{a}^{-1} $)且单个致灾峰值逼近沿海水平。研究提出分区治理策略, 为应对台风极端化与北扩化提供科学依据。Abstract: Based on typhoon disaster records and meteorological observations across China from 2014 to 2023, this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of typhoon activity, regional differentiation in disaster mechanisms, and the effectiveness of disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The annual average typhoon generation and landfall numbers show a slight decline (24.8 and 6.7 per year, respectively). Disaster-inducing typhoons exhibit counter-trend fluctuations (annual average: 8.0; extreme difference: 7.0). Short-duration rainstorm risks have intensified markedly, with hourly rainfall extremes rising at $ 7.2 \mathrm{~mm} \cdot \mathrm{a}^{-1} $, peaking at 135.3 mm in 2023. The ratio of rainfall-induced to wind-induced typhoon disasters (IPT/IWT) increased from 1.31 in 2014 to 1.83 in 2023, indicating a growing contribution of precipitation-driven impacts. Typhoon disasters display a distinct regional differentiation pattern of high-frequency and high-loss in coastal areas versus low-frequency but high-loss in inland areas. The Integrated Precipitation and Wind Threat (IPWT) index emerges as the core driver of cross-regional losses, yet underlying regional disaster mechanisms diverge substantially: wind-rain synergistic effects dominate in South China, persistent rainfall governs Southwest China, and direct wind damage prevails in Northeast China. Most national-scale disaster indicators declined significantly over the decade (annual reduction rate of deaths/missing persons: 10.7; Comprehensive Typhoon Disaster Impact Index (TDPr) decrease: 60.0%). However, emerging risk zones in northern China (e.g., Henan and Heilongjiang, with IPWT growth $ >6 \% \;\mathrm{a}^{-1} $) have experienced single-event disaster peaks approaching coastal levels. The study proposes region-specific governance strategies to address the intensification and northward expansion of typhoon impacts.
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图 3 2014-2023年台风灾害影响指数极大值
a.降水影响指数(IPT)；b.大风影响指数(IWT)；c.风雨综合影响指数(IPWT)；d.降水与大风影响指数比值(IPT/IWT)。
图 4 2014—2023年台风灾害致各省受灾人口数(a)、紧急转移人口(b)、死亡失踪人口(c)、农作物受灾面积(d)、倒塌房屋(e)、直接经济损失(f)、直接经济损失相对国内生产总值占比(g)和TDPr(h)指数情况
图中对应的线性变化趋势虚线为下降, 实线为上升。
图 9 2014-2023年单个台风致各省受灾人口数(a)、死亡失踪人口(b)、紧急转移安置人口(c)、农作物受灾面积(d)、倒塌房屋(e)、直接经济损失(f)极大值的变化趋势
表 1 中国省份(含直辖市)区域划分与归属关系
区域划分 沿海 内陆 南方 浙江、上海、江苏、福建、广东、广西、海南 湖南、安徽、江西、云南、贵州 北方 山东、辽宁、天津、河北 黑龙江、吉林、北京、内蒙古、河南 
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表 3 中国台风灾害分区域核心风险类型与防控策略聚焦点
区域 核心风险 防控策略聚焦点 华南 风雨协同效应 提升建筑抗风标准, 优化电网防风设计 华北 广域极端降水 强化跨流域防洪调度与城市内涝治理 东北 强风直接破坏 修订防风工程标准, 加固老旧建筑 西南 暴雨诱发链式灾害 建设地形导向的山洪预警网络
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