增长模在热带地区发展的分析研究

刘家峻; 张立凤; 梅娜; 李荔珊

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2012.01.012

增长模在热带地区发展的分析研究

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2012.01.012

1.
中国人民解放军61741部队,北京 100081
2.
中国人民解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏南京 211101

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(40975031)资助

计量
- 文章访问数: 1657
- HTML全文浏览量: 6
- PDF下载量: 1638
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-04-16
- 修回日期: 2011-01-30

ANALYSIS AND STUDY OF THE GROWTH MODE BREEDING DEVELOPING IN THE TROPICAL AREAS

1.
61941 Troops of PLA, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Institute of Meteorology, PLA Univ. of Sci. & Tech., Nanjing 211101, China

摘要

摘要: 利用T₆₃L₉全球谱模式对制作集合预报的增长模繁殖法(BGM)在热带地区的适用性进行研究,分析了在热带地区扰动增长的机理。设计与物理过程、积云对流参数化方案及湿物理过程有关的3个敏感性试验及1个控制试验。为了讨论不同物理过程对BGM生成扰动的影响,定义扰动动能变化率对试验结果进行分析。结果表明：在热带地区积云对流强盛区内风场扰动能够快速增长。扰动增长机制在热带地区与中高纬地区有本质区别,热带地区扰动的发展主要受物理过程的作用,其中模式积云对流及湿物理过程对扰动中快速增长的部分起着至关重要的作用。中高纬地区扰动发展与背景场的斜压不稳定有关。
- 应用气象学 /
- 增长模 /
- 集合预报 /
- 扰动增长机制 /
- 物理参数化方案
Abstract: The applicability of the Breeding Growth Method (BGM) in tropical areas is studied by using T₆₃L₉ global spectral model in this paper, and the mechanism of the mode growth in tropical areas is also analyzed. Three sensitivity experiments and one control experiment are designed with physical processes, cumulus convective parameterization schemes and wet physical processes. In order to discuss the impact of different physical processes on the disturbances generated from the BGM, the change rate of disturbance kinetic energy is defined as a criterion to analyze the experiment results. The results showed that in strong cumulus convection zones of the tropics, wind disturbance can grow rapidly. Essentially different from the mechanism of disturbance growth in the high latitudes, that of the tropical area is mainly affected by physical processes—including cumulus convection and wet physical processes, which play a vital role in the fast-growing disturbance. The disturbance growth in the high latitudes is related with baroclinic instability in the background.
- applied meteorological science /
- BGM /
- ensemble prediction /
- mechanism of disturbance growth /
- physical parameterization scheme

HTML全文

参考文献(12)

[1]	TOTH Z, KALNAY E. Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1993, 74(12): 2 317-2 330.
[2]	TOTH Z, KALNAY E. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP: the breeding method[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1997, 125(12): 3 297-3 318.
[3]	袁金南,万齐林,黄燕燕,等. 南海热带气旋路径集合预报试验[J]. 热带气象学报,2006,22(2): 150-122.
[4]	张立凤,罗雨. 基于BGM的暴雨集合预报初始扰动发展分析[J]. 热带气象学报,2009,25(5): 571-575.
[5]	HOUTEKAMER P L, LEFAIVRE L, DEROME J, et al. A System simulation approach to ensemble prediction[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1996, 124(6): 1 225-1 241.
[6]	STENSRUD D J, BAO Jian-Wen, WARNER T T. Using initial condition and model physics perturbation in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2000, 128(7): 2 077-2 107.
[7]	关吉平,黄泓,张立风. 集合预报中初始扰动生成方法的探讨[J]. 解放军理工大学学报,2003, 4(2): 87-90.
[8]	于永锋,张立凤. 基于增长模繁殖法的集合预报初始扰动饱和分析[J]. 大气科学,2005,29(6): 955-964.
[9]	琚建华,叶乃青. 云南初夏雨量与前期热带OLR的联系[J]. 热带气象学报,1999,15(1)：76-80.
[10]	张立凤,于永锋. 基于BGM的形成集合预报初扰的繁殖方法分析[C]//中国气象学会2005年年会论文集. 2005：56-57.
[11]	于永锋,张立凤,罗雨. 集合预报中动态调整的增长模繁殖及其对自由繁殖的改进[J]. 大气科学,2007,31(3): 527-535.
[12]	YU Yong-feng,ZHANG Li-feng. A study of initial perturbation saturation in ensemble prediction based on the BGM method[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2006,30(2): 171-182.