Evaluation of the 10m Wind Speed over China Based on CMIP6 GCM
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摘要:
风速的准确模拟对风电和太阳能等新能源领域未来发展布局具有重要指导意义,但目前全球气候模式对风速的模拟能力有限。基于国家基准台站观测资料,评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)的十个全球气候模式(Global Climate Model,GCM)对中国大陆10 m风速1961—2014年的时空分布特征的模拟能力。评估结果显示,在气候态特征上,十个CMIP6 GCM均能模拟出1961—2014年时期我国10 m风速春季最大、秋季最小的气候态季节变化特征,大多数模式存在全年系统性高估现象,尤其是BCC-CSM2-MR和FGOALS-f3-L模式。在年际变率上,十个CMIP6模式也均能再现我国风速年平均和季节平均的年际变率空间分布特征,但是量值较观测偏小。在年代际趋势上,除GFDL-ESM4模式之外的九个模式可模拟出中国区域平均的年平均风速在1961—2014年期间的减弱趋势,但是模拟的减弱趋势要较观测明显偏小1个量级,GFDL-ESM4模式对于中国区域年平均10 m风速在1961—2014年期间的变化模拟反而是增强的。
Abstract:Accurate simulation of wind speed is of significant guiding importance for the future development layout of new energy sectors such as wind and solar power. However, current global climate models exhibit limitations in their ability to simulate wind speeds. Based on CN05.1 high grid observations from national benchmark stations, this study evaluates the capability of ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of 10-meter wind speeds over mainland China during 1961-2014. Results show that all ten CMIP6 GCMs can capture the climatological seasonal variation of 10-meter wind speeds over China, with maximum speeds in spring and minimum speeds in autumn during the period from 1961 to 2014. However, most models exhibit a systematic overestimation throughout the year, particularly the BCC-CSM2-MR and FGOALS-f3-L models. These ten CMIP6 models are also capable of reproducing the spatial distribution characteristics of the interannual variability of annual and seasonal mean wind speeds over China, although the simulated values are generally smaller than the observed values. In simulating the decadal trends of 10-meter wind speeds from 1961 to 2014, only some of the ten CMIP6 GCMs could capture the weakening trend of annual and seasonal mean 10-meter wind speeds over most regions of China during this period. Moreover, the simulated weakening trends are significantly smaller than the observed trends, and over some regions, the models even fail to simulate the weakening trend, instead showing an increasing trend, which is contrary to the observations. The uncertainties in historical climate simulations also lead to considerable uncertainties in future climate change projections. Therefore, to obtain more reliable future scenario projections, it is essential to apply bias corrections to the model simulations and projections.
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Key words:
- 10-meter wind speeds /
- CMIP6 /
- bias distribution /
- GCM
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