一个有限区嵌套细网格模式的设计及预报结果检验
THE DESIGN AND FORECAST VERIFICATION OF AN ONE-WAY NESTED FINE-MESH LIMITED AREA NUMERICAL MODEL
-
摘要: 在钱永甫等研制的p-σ混合坐标系原始方程模式的基础上,建立、发展了一有限区域的单向影响嵌套细网格数值预报模式,并选取台风Wayne对应的天气形势演变过程为例,通过与MM4模式对同一个例预报结果的比较分析以及统计学检验,对该模式的预报能力进行了验证。结果表明,该模式能够较好地预报实际天气形势的演变过程,各层大气高度场的预报结果与实况的相关系数都超过0.74.和MM4对温压场的预报结果相对比,二者间只有细节上的区别而没有质的差异,都能够较为准确地反映出实际大气的演变特征。对风场的预报,细网格模式的风速值偏小。在降水的预报上,细网格模式对雨区的预报要优于MM4;在大陆的主要雨区,细网格模式预报的降水量与实况较为接近。Abstract: Based on a five-layer primitive equations model with P-σincorporated coordinates and topograph designed by Qian et al., an one-way nested fine mesh limited area model was developed.It was statistically verified and compared with MM4 in terms of results of the same evolutional process of synoptic situation for Typhoon Wayne to assess the forecast skill.The result shows that the model relatively well predicts the actual situation,with correlative coefficients exceeding 0.74 between the forecast and observation for all layers of geopotential height. Both having good reflection of atmospheric reality,difference in the detail rather than the nature is found between the fine-mesh model and MM4 with respect to the temperature and pressure. The former gives weaker winds but better rainfall area prediction as compared to MM4;it is closer to the reality in the forecast of the amount of rainfall centers.
-
Key words:
- Model /
- Design /
- Verification /
- Forecast
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 753
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 873
- 被引次数: 0