用ECMWF数值预报产品作热带气旋路径预报的业务系统
AN OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BY MEANS OF ECMWF PRODUCTS
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摘要: 以欧州中心数值预报产品为基础,采用EEOFS展开选取"典型场"作为数值预报产品的信息,以统计释用方法研究建立的,可以应用于南海区的热带气旋路径业务预报方法。该方法于1994年台汛期参加由广东省气象局主持的"关于热带气旋预报业务预试验项目",进行了9个台风的共14次预报试验,平均误差24h为187km,48h为352km。
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关键词:
- 热带气旋路径 /
- 数值释用 /
- 扩展经验正交函数(EEOFS)
Abstract: Based on ECMWF numerical prediction products, a operational satistical numerical interpretation forecast system of the South China sea tropical cyclone tracks is built by means of EEOFS method. In the summer of 1994, The fourteen real-time forecasting for the tracks of nine tropical cyclone is performed under the program of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau for "Tropical Cyclone Operational Experimental Forecast", and the average errors are 187km for 24hr,352km for 48hr.
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