台风路径统计预报的改进
AN IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS
-
摘要: 应用数值预报产品并采用多种预报方案相结合,建立了台风路径的统计释用综合预报模式,从而提高了台风路径预报的技巧。经1994年台风季节业务试用,其预报性能比原有的统计预报模式有较大的提高,试验表明,充分利用在预报时可得到的数值预报输出产品和采用多种方案集成是改进台风路径客观预报的有效途径。Abstract: In this paper, a statistical interpretation compostteforecast model of typhoon track io set up by using numericalforecast products and several forecast schemes.Tested in 1994Typhoon season ,its forecast performance in much better thanthat of the previous statistical forecast model.The test shows that it in an effective method to sufficiently improve objective forecast oftyphoon track using the numerical forecast outputproducts obtained from forecasting and adopting several schemcsin composition.
-
Key words:
- Typhoon track /
- Statistical forecast /
- Improvement
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 939
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 951
- 被引次数: 0