Nino海区SSTA短期气候预测模型试验
EXPERIMENT ON SHORT TERM CLIMATIC PREDICTION TO SSTA OVER THE NINO OCEANIC REGION
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摘要: 采用奇异谱分析(SSA)与自回归(AR)预测模型相结合的方案,对Nino海区平均SST逐月距平序列作自适应滤波意义下的超前预报。结果表明,对1997-1998年这次强ENSO事件的超前预报十分有效;利用相应的历史样本作三次强ENSO事件的回溯预报试验,发现均有较高可信度。可见,该方案预报技巧稳定,独立样本试验和实际预报试验都有很高的准确率。将SSA-AR方案进一步完善,可望作为ENSO业务预报的有效模型。Abstract: A short-term prediction ahead of time on monthly mean SSTA over Nino(1-4) oceanic region is made in the context of adaptive filtering using the Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA) and Auto-regression(AR) model in this paper.The results show that the prediction ahead of time is very efficient to this 1997-1998 strong ENSO event and the simulational predictions ahead of time have high confidence to the three strong ENSO events in history record.Therefore,the forecast skills of this SSA-AR prediction scheme are steady and its independent sample test and real prediction possess high precision.If we revise further the SSA-AR scheme then it is possible that it becomes an efficient model of operational forecast for ENSO.
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Key words:
- Singular Spectrum Analysis /
- ENSO event /
- Climatic prediction /
- Auto-regression model
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