广东省春季低温阴雨的年景变化趋势分析
THE ANALYSIS FOR THE YEARLY PROSPECT OF COLD AND RAINY WEATHER IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE
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摘要: 利用广州2～3月1908～1997年平均气温与1951～1997年平均日照资料,用小波变换分析广东省低温阴雨的年景趋势变化,着重分析重低温阴雨年在小波系数图中的分布特征,并根据分析结果对未来1～2年的低温阴雨年景进行了预测估计;然后利用小波方差图确定2～3月平均气温存在40年、6年左右周期振荡,日照存在43年左右的周期振荡;最后分析了低温阴雨的年景变化与同期和前期500hPa环流场及海温场分布特征的关系,得出了预测广东省低温阴雨年景趋势的一些有用信息。Abstract: By using the monthly temperature (1908-1997) and sunshine data(1951 - 1997) in Feb. ～Mar. of Guangzhou, and using the method of wavelet transformation, the variation for the yearly prospect of cold and rainy weather in Guangdong Province is analyzed. The distributive characteristics of heavy cold and rainy weather is emphatically analyzed in the chart of wavelet coefficient, and the 1-2years' yearly prospect of cold and rainy weather in future is also predicted;The main periods of monthly temperature in Feb. ～Mar. is 40,6 years. the sunshine is 43 years in wavelet variance chart. The relation between cold and rainy weather and the field distribution characteristics of 500hPa circulation and SST field is also analyzed, and some useful information of predicting the yearly prospect of cold and rainy weather trend is obtained.
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Key words:
- Cold and rainy weather /
- Wavelet analysis /
- Circulation and SST field
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