用简单海气耦合模式产品作热带气旋频数年际预测

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基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(49705063)和国家"九五"攻关课题资助项目(96-908-05-06和96-908-02-05)

PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF AFFECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE USING THE PRODUCTS OF A HYBRID AIR-SEA COUPLED MODEL

摘要: 首先建立一个用于优化热带简单海气耦合模式积分初始场的四维变分同化系统,由此提高模式对热带海表温度异常(SSTA)年际预测的准确率,并利用37年模式输出产品建立了影响华东和上海市的热带气旋(TC)年频数的长期预测方程,试报结果良好。
- 海表温度异常 /
- 四维变分同化 /
- 影响热带气旋
Abstract: A four-dimensional variational data assimilation system is established to optimize the, initial fields of a hybrid air-sea coupled model. The prediction skill of tropical SSTA is improved. Statistical models for predicting annual TC frequency affecting East China area and Shanghai city are developed based on 37-yr products of this model and the forecast results are perfect in 1998 and 1999.
- sea surface temperature anomalous /
- four-dimensional variational data assimilation /
- affecting tropical cyclone

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