大尺度调制的TC胚胎及其存活率对西北太平洋TC生成频数的影响

云星娥; 余锦华; 赵海坤

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.011

大尺度调制的TC胚胎及其存活率对西北太平洋TC生成频数的影响

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.011

南京信息工程大学气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/ 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，江苏南京 210044

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 42475035

国家自然科学基金重大项目 42193255021

详细信息

通讯作者:
余锦华，女，安徽省人，教授，主要从事热带气旋研究。E-mail: jhyu@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P444
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-09-28
- 修回日期: 2024-11-28
- 网络出版日期: 2025-05-17
- 刊出日期: 2025-02-20

Impact of Large-Scale Modulation of Seeds and Survival Rate on the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Northwestern Pacific

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

摘要

摘要: 大尺度环境是影响热带气旋(TC)生成数目气候特征的背景，但目前基于两者统计关系建立的TC潜在生成指数(Genesis Potential Tndex，GPI)对西北太平洋TC生成频数年循环的精确刻画有待提高。TC生成的理论框架将TC生成数目表示为TC前期扰动(TC胚胎)数和扰动发展为TC的概率的乘积。基于这一理论框架，采用国际气候管理最佳路径档案的热带气旋最佳路径数据和欧洲中期预报中心提供的ERA-5再分析资料，探究大尺度环境对西北太平洋TC生成频数气候特征的影响。结果表明，基于该理论框架提出的大尺度环境参数化的TC胚胎数与其存活率的乘积能够精细刻画西北太平洋TC生成频数的年循环特征。在整个西北太平洋区域，存活率和TC胚胎数的乘积与TC生成频数序列的相关并不显著。将西北太平洋分为东部和西部两个区域，两者都有显著的相关，并发现中国南海及菲律宾群岛一带（西部）TC生成频数异常由TC胚胎数和存活率共同调制，垂直速度和熵亏是调控二者的主要环境因子。在西北太平洋东部的广阔洋面上，TC生成频数异常主要受TC胚胎数变化的影响，垂直速度和相对涡度控制了TC胚胎数的变化。
- 热带气旋生成频数 /
- 种子-存活率框架 /
- 大尺度环境 /
- 参数化
Abstract: The large-scale environment serves as the background influencing the climatic characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. However, current TC genesis potential indices (GPIs), which are based on statistical relationships between environmental factors and TC formation, still require improvement in accurately characterizing the annual cycle of TC genesis frequency over the Northwestern Pacific. According to the theoretical framework of tropical cyclogenesis, TC genesis frequency can be expressed as the product of precursor disturbances (TC seeds) and their probability of developing into TCs. Based on this theoretical framework, the present study utilized TC best track data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship and ERA-5 reanalysis data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to investigate the impact of large-scale environmental conditions on the climatic characteristics of tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the Northwestern Pacific. The results indicate that, based on the proposed theoretical framework, the product of the parameterized TC seeds and their survival rate can effectively characterize the annual cycle of TC genesis frequency in the Northwestern Pacific. In the entire Northwestern Pacific region, the correlation between the product of the two factors and TC genesis frequency was not significant. However, after dividing the entire region into eastern and western parts, we found that the product of TC seeds and survival rate showed significant correlations with TC genesis frequency in both regions. It was also observed that in the western region around the South China Sea and the Philippines Sea, the abnormal tropical cyclone genesis frequency was primarily controlled by both TC seeds and their survival rate. Vertical velocity and entropy deficit were identified as primary environmental factors affecting these two factors. Over the vast eastern Northwestern Pacific, on the other hand, the abnormal tropical cyclone genesis frequency was mainly influenced by variations in TC seeds, which were controlled by vertical velocity and relative vorticity.
- tropical cyclone genesis frequency /
- seed-probability framework /
- large-scale environment /
- parameterization

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图 1 1991—2020年TC生成频数、S、P、S×P和GPI的年循环特征(a)，6月至7月的增幅(b)，7—10月与11—6月的比率(c)

(a)、(b)的y轴为归一化后的值，归一化表示为某个月值除以年总值。

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图 2 TC生成频数与S(a)、P(b)、S×P(c)归一化后的月气候散点图

蓝色实线表示线性回归，回归方程和解释方差在右下角。

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图 3 1991—2020年7月(第一行)、8月(第二行)、9月(第三行)、10月(第四行)TC生成频数(等值线)和S(第一列)、P(第二列)以及S×P(第三列)气候态的空间分布。

阴影表示指数。空间相关系数在图右下角，*表示通过0.05的显著性水平。

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图 4 1979—2021年7—10月的TC生成频数(黑色实线)、S(黑色箭头虚线)、P(点线)和S×P(虚线)的时间序列

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图 5 TC生成频数正(a)、负(b)异常年合成的空间型(单位：次·a-1)；S(c, d)、P(e, f)、S×P(g, h)为正，负异常年合成的空间分布

灰色阴影(a, b)和打点区域(c~h)表示通过0.05的显著性水平。

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图 6 1979—2021年7—10月140 °E以西区域(a)和140 °E以东区域(b)TC生成频数(黑色实线)、S(黑色箭头虚线)、P(点线)和S×P(虚线)的时间序列

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图 7 S(a, i)、-ω (b, j)、ζ (c, k)、P(d, l)、Λ(e, m)、ν_s (f, n)、χ_m (g, o)、ν_PI (h, p)为140 °E以西区域TCGF正(第一排)、负(第二排)异常年合成的空间分布。

打点区域(a~p)表示通过0.05的显著性水平。

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图 8 同图 7，为140 °E以东区域

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表 1 1979—2021年不同区域内TC生成频数和不同指数之间的相关系数

Index	100~140°E	140°E~180°
S	0.65*	0.61*
P	0.40*	0.20*
S×P	0.60*	0.54*
GPI	0.34*	0.15
注：*表示通过表示通过0.05的显著性水平。

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表 2 TCGF正、负异常年TC胚胎指数和存活率变化对S×P的贡献

异常年份	140°E以西区域				140°E以东区域
异常年份	年份	胚胎数	存活率	δ(S×P)	年份	胚胎数	存活率	δ(S×P)
正异常年	1995	+0.24(36.1%)	+0.43(63.9%)	+0.67	1980	+0.16(69.8%)	+0.07(30.2%)	+0.23
	1998	+0.11(13.9%)	+0.71(86.1%)	+0.82	1989	+0.44(203.7%)	-0.22(-103.7%)	+0.22
	2000	+0.43(85.9%)	+0.07(14.1%)	+0.50	1991	+0.55(133.0%)	-0.14(-33.0%)	+0.42
	2013	+0.15(52.6%)	+0.14(47.4%)	+0.29	1994	+0.54(145.7%)	-0.17(-45.7%)	+0.37
	2017	+0.15(38.3%)	+0.24(61.7%)	+0.39	2002	+0.58(104.7%)	-0.03(-4.7%)	+0.56
	2020	+0.24(24.2%)	+0.79(75.8%)	+0.99	2004	+0.16(20.2%)	+0.64(79.8%)	+0.80
	Ave.	41.8%	58.2%		2016	+0.22(49.7%)	+0.22(50.3%)	+0.44
					2018.00	+0.07(26.5%)	+0.21(73.5%)	+0.28
					Ave.	94.2%	5.8%
负异常年	1980	-0.007(5.2%)	-0.127(94.8%)	0.134	1998	-0.53(47.9%)	-0.58(52.1%)	-1.11
	1982	-0.27(30.0%)	-0.63(70.0%)	-0.90	1999	-0.20(17.6%)	-0.95(82.4%)	-1.15
	1986.00	-0.16(38.7%)	-0.30(61.3%)	-0.46	2008	-0.49(91.1%)	-0.048(8.9%)	-0.54
	1987	-0.305(100.0%)	+0.00(0%)	-0.305	2010	-0.75(57.1%)	-0.56(42.9%)	-1.31
	2002	-0.06(19.6%)	-0.23(80.4%)	-0.29	2020	-0.86(171.3%)	+0.36(-71.3%)	-0.50
	2004	-0.39(92.7%)	-0.03(7.3%)	-0.42	Ave.	77.0%	23.0%
	2014.00	-0.07(38.9%)	-0.11(61.1%)	-0.18
	2015.00	-0.37(38.6%)	-0.60(61.4%)	-0.97
	Ave.	0.46	0.55

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