Analysis on the statistical characteristics of Autumn Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during 2002-2021
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摘要: 采用中国气象局上海台风研究所台风年鉴资料,分析近二十年(2002—2021年)西北太平洋(WNP)秋季(9—11月)台风的频数、强度、位置、路径及其年际变化和季节内差异,以及登陆我国的秋季台风的风雨特点。结果表明,近二十年秋季WNP共生成201个台风(其中39个登陆我国,占比19.4%),以超强台风(25.9%)和强台风(21.9%)居多。2010年之前WNP秋季台风个数偏少(9.4个/年)、但登陆我国的比例较高(25.8%),之后转为个数偏多(10.5个/年)、但登陆我国比例下降(14.7%),总体趋势不显著。二十年间WNP每年秋季平均约1.95个台风登陆我国,其中强台风和超强台风占61.5%,年际变化呈现2010年之前偏多快变、之后偏少稳定的特征。秋季登陆我国的台风主要影响海南、广东、台湾,其最大观测风速和最大单站过程降雨量总体呈线性关系,即最大观测风速越大最大单站过程降雨量越强,但两者的趋势变化都不显著。相比而言,秋季登陆广东的台风最大观测风速最高、最大单站过程降雨量最强。Abstract: This study analyzes the climatological characteristics of autumn tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred over the western North Pacific (WNP) over the past twenty years (2002-2021), including genesis frequency and location, intensity, and tracks, based on the TC Annual Report from Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration. More attentions were paid on those TCs making landfall in China, especially the features of heavy precipitation and strong wind observed during TC landing periods. Results show that there were totally 201 autumn TCs occurred over the WNP during 2002-2021, with 39 of them making landfall in China, accounting for 19.4% of the total and showing a majority of the TCs being super (25.9%) and intense typhoons (21.9%). Before 2010, the number of autumn TCs was relatively low (9.4 per year), but the proportion of those making landfall in China was high (25.8%). After 2010, the number of TCs increased (10.5 per year), but the proportion making landfall in China decreased (14.7%). The trend in autumn TCs during 2002~2021 was insignificant. On average, about 1.95 autumn TCs make landfall in China each year, with super and intense typhoons together accounting for 61.5% of them. About 3-4 TCs making landfall in China were observed each year before 2010 with rapid annual oscillation, while the number decreased to 2 per year and kept stabilization afterwards. Most autumn TCs made landing in Hainan, Guangdong, and Taiwan provinces of China during the study period. In general, the maximum observed wind speed and maximum 24h precipitation associated with autumn TCs at individual stations generally show a linear relationship, indicating that the stronger the maximum observed wind speed, the heavier the 24 h maximum precipitation. However, the trends of both variables are insignificant. In comparison, autumn TCs making landfall in Guangdong province have the strongest winds and heaviest precipitations.
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Key words:
- Autumn TCs /
- WNP /
- maximum observed wind speed
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