1.5~4 ℃全球温升水平下影响东亚的西北太平洋热带气旋活动变化

吴婕; 石英

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.031

1.5~4 ℃全球温升水平下影响东亚的西北太平洋热带气旋活动变化

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.031

吴婕¹,
石英^2, ,

1.
赣南师范大学地理与环境工程学院，江西赣州 341000
2.
国家气候中心，北京 100081

基金项目:

科技创新2030— “新一代人工智能”重大项目 2022ZD0119503

江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目 JC21229

中国气象局青年创新团队“青藏高原气候变化及其影响” CMA2023QN16

中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目 0704181

详细信息

通讯作者:
石英，女，山东省人，研究员，主要从事区域气候模式研究。E-mail: shiying@cma.gov.cn

中图分类号: P467
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-12-28
- 修回日期: 2025-05-14
- 网络出版日期: 2025-07-06
- 刊出日期: 2025-06-20

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific under Four Global Warming Targets of 1.5-4 ℃

WU Jie¹,
SHI Ying^{2
, ,}

1.
School of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi 341000, China
2.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 生成于西北太平洋的热带气旋(TC)每年严重影响我国及东亚各国沿海地区，合理预估不同全球温升水平下影响东亚的西北太平洋TC活动变化，可为东亚各国沿海地区有效适应气候变化和防灾减灾提供科学参考。本文基于4个CMIP5全球气候模式(EC-EARTH、HadGEM2-ES、MPI-ESM-MR和NorESM1-M)驱动RegCM4区域气候模式得到的高分辨率气候变化模拟集合结果(水平分辨率为25 km)，预估了1.5 ℃、2 ℃、3 ℃和4 ℃全球温升水平下，影响东亚的西北太平洋TC活动在中和高(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)排放情景下的变化。结果表明，随着全球温升水平的提高，TC生成频率增加的范围逐渐扩大；TC路径频率增加的范围也逐渐扩展，且呈向极和向东方向偏移的趋势。与当代相比，未来4个全球温升水平下4月和6—9月的月平均TC数量都将增多，其中3 ℃ (4 ℃)温升水平下分别在6月、8月和9月(4月和7月)TC数量增加最多，增加值分别为0.79、0.92和1.25 (0.44和1.35)。从持续时间、TC等级和最小海平面气压三个描述TC强度特征的要素来看，在当代和未来不同全球温升水平下三个要素分布均相同，且较强的TC强度等级(等级为台风或强台风/最小海平面气压 < 980 hPa)中，最高温升水平(4 ℃)下TC数量较多，数值在1.48以上。相比当代，在3 ℃ (2 ℃)温升水平下登陆中国(日本)的TC数量增加最多，增加值为0.98 (0.75)，登陆韩国和朝鲜的TC数量变化不大。
- RegCM4 /
- 全球温升水平 /
- 热带气旋 /
- 西北太平洋 /
- 预估
Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) generated in the western North Pacific (WNP) pose significant threats to China's coastal regions each year. Thus, projecting changes in TC activity over the WNP under different global warming scenarios holds substantial importance. Utilizing four CMIP5 global climate models (ECEARTH, HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, NorESM1-M) drive to the regional climate model RegCM4, simulations of East Asian climate change were performed. Projections of TC activity changes over the WNP under global warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃ were carried out. Results demonstrate that with increasing global mean temperature, the spatial distribution of areas with heightened TC genesis and occurrence frequency progressively enlarges. TC tracks tend to move poleward and eastward. Relative to the 1986-2005 baseline, under all four global warming scenarios, the monthly mean TC number in April and June-September is projected to rise. The largest increases in TC frequency are expected in June, August, and September (April and July) under the 3 ℃ (4 ℃) warming target, with increments of 0.79, 0.92, and 1.25 (0.44 and 1.35), respectively. In terms of duration, TC intensity, and minimum sea level pressure, their spatial distributions exhibit similarity across the present day and the four global warming scenarios. Projections indicate that under the 4 ℃ global warming target, the maximum number of strong TCs (typhoons and intense typhoons, defined by minimum sea level pressure < 980 hPa) will surpass 1.48. Projections suggest that the most substantial increases in TC landfall frequency over China (Japan) will be 0.98 (0.75) under the 3 ℃ (2 ℃) global warming target. Meanwhile, landfall frequencies over South Korea and North Korea are anticipated to remain relatively stable.
- RegCM4 /
- global warming target /
- tropical cyclone /
- Western North Pacific /
- projection

HTML全文

图 1 CORDEX-东亚模拟区域(灰色区域)、模拟缓冲区(浅灰色区域)和研究分析区域(红框) (a)，文中分析的热带气旋登陆的东亚国家(中国、日本、朝鲜、韩国) (b)

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图 2 RCP4.5(a)和RCP8.5(b)情景下全球平均近地面气温距平序列(相对1861—1900年)

单位：℃，圆点表示4个全球气候模式达到1.5~4 ℃全球温升水平的时间。

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图 3 观测(a)和多模式集合平均(b)的当代西北太平洋年平均热带气旋生成频率的分布及1.5~4 ℃全球温升水平下的变化(相对于1986—2005年)(c~f)

单位：个·a^-1，×标记处表示通过95%显著性检验。

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图 4 观测、多模式集合平均的当代和1.5~4 ℃全球温升水平下西北太平洋的月平均热带气旋生成数量(a)及1.5~4 ℃全球温升水平下月平均热带气旋数量与当代(1986—2005年)的差值(b，单位：个·mon^-1)

星号标记表示变化通过95%显著性检验。

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图 5 同图 3，但为路径频率分布

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图 6 观测、多模式集合平均的当代和1.5~4 ℃全球温升水平下西北太平洋热带气旋在不同表征指标下的年平均数量分布(单位：个·a^-1)

a.持续时间；b.等级(TD：热带低压，TS：热带风暴，STS：强热带风暴，TY：台风，STY：强台风，SuperTY：超强台风)；c.最小海平面气压。

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图 7 观测、多模式集合平均的当代和 1.5~4 ℃全球温升水平下登陆中国、日本、朝鲜、韩国的年平均热带气旋数量

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表 1 当代和1.5~4 ℃全球温升水平下西北太平洋生成的年平均热带气旋数量(单位：个·a^-1)

当代 1.5 ℃ 2 ℃ 3 ℃ 4 ℃

23.5 25.0 26.0 27.8 29.0

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