复合型热带气旋事件及其经济损失时空变化特征

郭倩; 苏布达; 姜彤; 张纪; 温姗姗; 翟建青

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.060

复合型热带气旋事件及其经济损失时空变化特征

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.060

郭倩^{1, 2},
苏布达^{1, 2, ,},
姜彤^{1, 2, 3},
张纪^{1, 2},
温姗姗⁴,
翟建青⁵

1.
南京信息工程大学/气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室，江苏南京 210044
2.
南京信息工程大学气候与环境治理研究院，江苏南京 210044
3.
江苏第二师范学院地理科学学院/江苏省气候风险模拟与城乡智慧治理重点实验室，江苏南京 210013
4.
安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院，安徽芜湖 241002
5.
中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目 42271081

国家自然科学基金面上项目 42071024

国家自然科学基金青年项目 42005126

江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目 KYCX24_1474

详细信息

通讯作者:
苏布达，女，内蒙古自治区人，教授，主要从事气候变化影响与风险研究。E-mail: subd@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P444
计量
- 文章访问数: 3
- HTML全文浏览量: 1
- PDF下载量: 0
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-03-30
- 修回日期: 2025-07-18
- 网络出版日期: 2025-11-26
- 刊出日期: 2025-10-20

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Compound Tropical Cyclone Events and Their Economic Losses

GUO Qian^{1, 2},
SU Buda^{1, 2
, ,},
JIANG Tong^{1, 2, 3},
ZHANG Ji^{1, 2},
WEN Shanshan⁴,
ZHAI Jianqing⁵

1.
State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2.
Research Institute of Climatic and Environmental Governance, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3.
Key Laboratory for Climate Risk and Urban-Rural Smart Governance /School of Geography, Jiangsu Second Normal University, Nanjing 210013, China
4.
School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui 241002, China
5.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 近年来，多个热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone，TC)接连影响同一地区并造成严重经济损失的现象频发。以TC路径为中心划定50 km影响区，将多个TC影响区在空间上有交叠且影响时间相距不超过10日的事件定义为一个复合型TC事件。基于1949—2022年西北太平洋TC数据集与1984—2022年中国的TC灾情数据，对复合型TC事件进行识别并开展对其经济损失时空变化特征的研究。(1) 1949—2022年每年代约有6.9个复合型TC事件发生，不同年代间复合型TC事件频数差异显著，1960s为频发期。全国范围内约14.8% 地区受到复合型TC事件影响，除传统易受TC影响地区(如东南沿海)外，中高纬度沿海及邻近内陆地区也暴露于其影响范围内，2010s受影响面积最大。(2) 在1984—2022年有复合型TC事件发生的年份中，复合型TC事件产生直接经济损失约占TC总损失的39%，以9.6% (10 a)^-1的速度增加，表明复合型TC事件的破坏力不断增强。高强度复合型平均经济损失约为低强度复合型的2.2倍。(3) 复合型TC事件产生的经济损失明显高于单一TC，灾害叠加效应显著。传统TC受灾区易受高强度复合型影响，中高纬度地区暴露于低强度复合型影响下易产生严重经济损失，需提升防台减灾能力建设。
- 复合型热带气旋 /
- 直接经济损失 /
- 时空变化 /
- 极端事件
Abstract: In recent years, the occurrence of multiple tropical cyclones (TCs) which consecutively impact the same region, resulting in significant economic losses, has become increasingly frequent. This study defines a compound TC event as an occurrence where the 50 km impact zones centered on the tracks of multiple TCs overlap spatially and the temporal interval between their impacts is no more than 10 days. Based on a dataset of Northwest Pacific TCs from 1949 to 2022 and TC disaster data in China from 1984 to 2022, we identify compound TC events and analyze their spatiotemporal characteristics of economic losses. The results indicate that: (1) From 1949 to 2022, an average of approximately 6.9 compound TC events occurred per decade, with significant differences in frequency across decades and a peak during 1960s. About 14.8% of the national territory was impacted by compound TC events, affecting not only traditionally vulnerable areas (such as the southeast coast) but also mid - to high-latitude coastal and adjacent inland regions, with the largest affected area observed in the 2010s. (2) In the years with recorded compound TC events from 1984 to 2022, direct economic losses from these events account for approximately 39% of total TC losses, increasing at a rate of 9.6% per decade, indicating a growing destructiveness of compound TC events. The average economic losses from high-intensity compound TCs were about 2.2 times greater than those of low-intensity compound TCs. (3) Economic losses from compound TC events are significantly higher than those from single TCs, highlighting the pronounced disaster amplification effect. Traditional TC-affected areas are particularly susceptible to high-intensity compound TCs, while mid-latitude regions exposed to low-intensity compound TCs are likely to incur severe economic losses, necessitating improvements in typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.
- compound tropical cyclones /
- direct economic losses /
- spatio-temporal characteristics /
- extreme events

HTML全文

图 1 1949—2022年复合型热带气旋事件频数年代际变化

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图 2 1949—2022年复合型热带气旋事件年均频数的逐月分布

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图 3 1949—2022年复合型热带气旋事件影响面积年代际变化

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图 4 1949—2022年复合型热带气旋事件频数空间分布

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图 5 1949—2022年不同年代复合型热带气旋事件频数空间分布

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图 6 1984—2022年复合型热带气旋事件直接经济损失及占热带气旋总损失比重的线性趋势线

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图 7 1984—2022年复合型热带气旋事件总直接经济损失、单次事件平均经济损失及复合型总直接经济损失占GDP比重空间分布

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图 8 1984—2022年复合型热带气旋与单一热带气旋平均经济损失年代际变化

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图 9 复合型热带气旋事件与单一热带气旋对比具体案例

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