Triggering and Dual Polarization Radar Characteristics Analysis of a Strong Convection in Warm Sector Ahead of the Front
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摘要: 利用SA波段双偏振雷达、FY-2G黑体亮温、地面加密观测、常规观测及ERA5再分析资料,使用天气学诊断和系统风分离推算海风贡献的方法对2023年“3.23”锋前暖区强对流的触发及双偏振雷达特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)在暖区对流生成前,即使环境条件很好,但预报员没有分析出暖区中的抬升触发条件而漏报;(2)在暖低压发展、低层暖平流强迫背景下,午后锋前暖区里的中尺度辐合加强,且出现西南干暖气流与向岸湿冷气流的汇合;通过系统风分离推算海风贡献,证实了午后南宁受到海风影响,海风加强深入至内陆约100 km,带来水汽和浅薄冷平流,与低层中尺度辐合共同作用触发了对流。(3)强单体A、B的三体散射长钉TBSS伸出前均出现明显的前兆特征,即回波呈“短钉”状,反射率因子较强(Zh,45~65 dBZ)、对应小的差分反射率因子(ZDR,0 dB左右)、小的相关系数(CC,0.9~0.95),起始位置Zh较弱(10~25 dBZ)、ZDR很大(6~7 dB)、CC小且嘈杂(0.6~0.9)、KDP≈0 °·km-1或缺值,且中末端的弱回波尚未伸展。TBSS特征表现为反射率因子核(即冰雹核)极强(Zh在65~71 dBZ之间dBZ,CC小、ZDR为负值、KDP空洞),其径向前方伸出较长且呈“火焰”状的弱回波、对应的相关系数CC和径向速度V均较小且嘈杂、ZDR呈现“先大后小”特征。成熟阶段的强单体B呈现悬垂、有界弱回波区以及双涡旋结构等超级单体雹暴云结构。(4)Zh、ZDR、CC等偏振参量联合使用提供了更确切识别三体散射及发现三体散射前兆特征的信号,有利冰雹的早期预警。Abstract: The triggering of the strong convection process in the warm sector ahead of the front that occurred on March 23, 2023, is analyzed using SA-band dua-polarization radar, FY-2G blackbody brightness temperature (TBB), ground encrypted observation data, routine observation data, and ERA5 reanalysis data, together with the method of synoptic meteorological diagnosis and a method for calculating sea breeze contribution through system wind separation. The results showed that: (1) Before warm-sector convection initiation, forecasters may fail to predict convective events (resulting in false negatives) due to an insufficient diagnosis of triggering conditions within the warm sector, even when favorable environmental parameters are present. (2) In the background of warm low pressure development and low-level warm advection forcing, mid-scale convergence in the warm sector ahead of the front strengthens in the afternoon, and the convergence of southwest dry warm airflow and onshore wet cold airflow appears. Calculating the contribution of sea breeze through system wind separation confirms that Nanning is affected by sea breeze in the afternoon. The sea breeze strengthens and penetrates about 100 km inland, bringing water vapor and shallow cold advection, which work together with low-level mesoscale convergence to trigger convection. (3) The three body scattering spikes (TBSS) of cells A and B exhibit obvious precursor characteristics before extending. The radar echo exhibits short spikes, characterized by a robust reflectivity core (Zh; 45~65 dBZ) collocated with minimal differential reflectivity (ZDR≈0 dB) and slightly depressed cross-correlation coefficient (CC; 0.9~0.95). At the initiation region, weaker reflectivity (Zh; 10~25 dBZ) coincides with anomalously elevated ZDR values (6~7 dB), low and noisy CC (0.6~0.9), and near-zero or missing specific differential phase (KDP). Notably, the weak echo segments at mid-to-end remain not yet stretched out.The TBSS feature is that the reflectivity core (a hail core) is extremely strong (Zh=65~71 dBZ, CC small, ZDR negative, KDP void), characterized by a long and flame-like weak echo extending radially in front of the reflectance core. The corresponding correlation coefficient(CC) and radial velocity (V) are both small and noisy. ZDR presents a"big first, small later" pattern. In the mature stage, cell B presents super-individual hailstorm cloud structures such as overhangs, a bounded weak echo region (BWER), and double vortex structures. (4) The combined use of polarization parameters such as Zh, ZDR, CC provides a more accurate signal for identifying TBSS and discovering precursor characteristics of TBSS, which is beneficial for early warning of hail.
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图 15 2023年3月23日16:55超级单体B成熟阶段偏振参量沿图 14所示线段的垂直剖面Zh(a)、CC(b)、ZDR(c)、KDP(d)
等值线为Zh(单位: dBZ,间隔: 10 dBZ)。
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